One of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, has filed to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Index, adding to a wave of Wall Street firms testing the prediction market waters.
Nasdaq, the firm behind the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, is looking to offer “Outcome Related Options” for yes-or-no bets, priced between 1 cent and $1, according to its filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The offering would allow traders to take binary positions on events linked to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro indexes — not on outcomes related to other events, such as sports, culture, or politics.
Some of the most notable stocks in the Nasdaq-100 include Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
SEC approval could see it enter a booming market alongside the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi, while crypto trading platforms like Coinbase and Crypto.com are also integrating prediction markets.
Other Wall Street players, such as the Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe Global Markets, have also invested in the space or signaled an intention to launch their own prediction market-style offerings.
CME Group’s partnership with American gambling company FanDuel will enable traders to bet on markets outside of finance, while Cboe’s offering will be focused on finance and economic contracts.
Crypto asset manager Bitwise also filed with the SEC last month to launch “PredictionShares” exchange-traded funds that seek to hold event contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election, while GraniteShares and Roundhill also made similar filings in February.
Prediction markets became one of the hottest use cases in crypto last year and have consistently surpassed $10 billion in monthly trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi have been aggressively marketing their products to retail users in recent months despite some regulators seeking to restrict the industry.
Nasdaq wants its prediction offering on several platforms
Nasdaq is also looking to offer Outcome-Related Options on other Nasdaq options exchanges, including Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX.
Nasdaq MRX uses a first-come, first-served system and does not pay trading incentives. In contrast, Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX incorporate pricing models that can reward participants for adding liquidity.
Context
Current positioning around Market Analysis remains sensitive to primary-source updates, policy interpretation, and execution risk across major venues.
What To Watch
Key confirmation signals include sustained spot demand, funding stability, and whether price can hold reclaimed levels after headline-driven volatility.
If momentum weakens, traders will likely prioritize downside liquidity zones and risk-control positioning before adding new directional exposure.
