Tarek Mansour, the co-founder of prediction market Kalshi, provided an update, following the platform’s decision to void some positions that were opened after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was confirmed.
“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here,” Mansour said in a post on X.
Iranian state media reported the death early Sunday, after an attack launched by Israel and the United States a day earlier.
Kalshi is reimbursing all fees from the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market, and will pay traders with positions open before Khamenei died according to the “last-traded price before his death,” Mansour said.
Additionally, users who opened positions after the death of Khamenei were reimbursed the difference between the higher price paid for entry and the last traded price.
A Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the platform’s policy on not allowing “death markets” is clear and long-standing.
The platform reiterated the policy on Saturday, and Mansour said that the death carveout stipulations were clearly stated in the rules for the market. However, the decision sparked backlash from users online, who accused the platform of curtailing user profits.
Suspicions of insider trading activity on prediction market platforms rise amid geopolitical tensions
In February, six traders on rival prediction market Polymarket netted about $1 million betting that the US would initiate a strike on Iran before the end of the month.
All six wallets were created in February, mostly bet on markets related to a strike on Iran, and some of the positions were filled hours before the first explosions were heard over the Iranian capital of Tehran, according to Bloomberg.
The trading patterns raised suspicion of insider trading activity among onchain investigators and analysts.
In January, US President Donald Trump announced that the individual who leaked information tied to the raid and capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been arrested by US law enforcement.
The comments fueled speculation from onchain analysis platform Lookonchain that the leaker Trump was referencing may have been linked to winning bets on Polymarket placed shortly before the US raid in Caracas.
Context
Current positioning around Market Analysis remains sensitive to primary-source updates, policy interpretation, and execution risk across major venues.
What To Watch
Key confirmation signals include sustained spot demand, funding stability, and whether price can hold reclaimed levels after headline-driven volatility.
If momentum weakens, traders will likely prioritize downside liquidity zones and risk-control positioning before adding new directional exposure.
