Iran’s top crypto exchange saw a significant spike in crypto withdrawals within minutes of the US and Israel launching strikes in Tehran on Saturday. However, a widespread internet outage curbed additional outflows.
In a post on Monday, Elliptic said crypto outflows from the Nobitex exchange surged by more than 700% to over $500,000 within minutes of the first airstrikes, with a chart showing that outflows reached nearly $3 million in a single hour later that day.
Elliptic said the sharp rise in outflows “potentially represents capital flight from Iran,” with its initial tracing showing that many of those funds were sent to foreign crypto exchanges.
“This allows funds to be moved out of Iran while avoiding some of the scrutiny of the global banking system,” Elliptic said.
However, crypto outflows from Nobitex fell sharply after Saturday, which fellow crypto forensics platform TRM Labs attributed to the Iranian regime enforcing strict internet blackouts.
Iran’s internet connectivity reportedly fell by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict unfolded, TRM noted.
TRM also opposed Elliptic’s conclusion that capital flight is leaving Iran, stating:
“It appears that the country’s crypto ecosystem is not showing signs of acceleration or capital flight, but instead experiencing a downturn in both transactions and volume as the regime enforces strict internet blackouts.”
The outflows occurred amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, following strikes targeting Tehran and subsequent Iranian retaliation.
Nobitex is Iran’s largest crypto exchange, handling roughly 87% of the country’s crypto transaction volume. In 2025, it processed about $7.2 billion in trades for more than 11 million users.
Millions of Iranians impacted by recent banking collapse
Iranians continue to rely on crypto to store and move funds as a solution to navigate Iran’s fragile banking system and the widespread sanctions imposed on the country.
In October, one of Iran’s largest private banks, Ayandeh Bank, went bankrupt after accumulating $5.1 billion in losses and nearly $3 billion in debt, impacting more than 42 million customers.
Iran’s central bank warned last year that eight other local banks were at risk of dissolution unless they implement reforms.
Iranian crypto exchanges haven’t been without problems either, as Nobitex suffered an $81 million hack in June.
Context
Current positioning around Market Analysis remains sensitive to primary-source updates, policy interpretation, and execution risk across major venues.
What To Watch
Key confirmation signals include sustained spot demand, funding stability, and whether price can hold reclaimed levels after headline-driven volatility.
If momentum weakens, traders will likely prioritize downside liquidity zones and risk-control positioning before adding new directional exposure.
