Usually, gross generalisations are unreliable, but there is one all-encompassing statement that holds true. Investors want to make the highest return with the lowest amount of market exposure. When markets are moving in a beneficial direction and in a predictable way, the probability of that outcome increases exponentially.
But what happens when markets are cooling? What if sentiment is also continually shifting towards the cautious and risk-averse? Can the outcome still be beneficial?
There is one type of market participant that knows exactly what to do in this type of situation, who may even offer a lesson to retail traders. They also happen to be the world’s largest institutional investors: central banks. According to the World Gold Council, central banks around the world have ramped up gold acquisition, accumulating a 1,000-tonne gold reserve in the past three years. That is approximately double the amount of gold they acquired during the entire preceding decade, between 400 and 500 tonnes.
Recent trading behaviour across the retail market suggests that many individual traders have also been paying close attention to gold as conditions shift, a point we’ll return to later.
The Focus on Gold
A trader doesn’t really need a microscope to understand that gold is squarely in focus. Numerous large commercial and investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America, are bullish on gold going into 2026. Most of these organizations expect the current upward trend to continue until the end of 2026, albeit with the potential for a slight reversal, which could push the yellow metal towards highs approaching $5,000.
In the short term, Bank of America highlights risk of a correction, but U.S. geopolitical policies continue to support gold prices. BofA points towards the current administration’s unorthodox approach to both fiscal and external policy, rising debt, growing inflation, and political pressure to cut rates.
Morgan Stanley meanwhile state that institutional interest is also signalled by Exchange Traded Funds becoming increasingly stronger buyers. Physical gold-backed ETFs experienced a record inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Morgan Stanley adds to this the fact that a weakened dollar could additionally attract and benefit investors outside the U.S.
Why Does Gold Make the Trading World Go Around?
Over the previous eight recessions, gold outperformed the historically strong S&P500 (an index tracking the performance of the U.S.’s 500 leading companies) by 37%. That fact alone is enough to justify why institutional investors are rushing towards gold. Financial institutions and professional traders are always on the lookout for signs of an impending recession, which will prompt them to shift more towards gold, beyond their usual holdings for diversification and risk mitigation.
Fortunately for traders and markets alike, only a few of these recession forerunners have been observed. Due to the U.S ‘s trade tariffs, GDP growth is under pressure, and inflation is high; however, interest rate cuts are helping inflation move closer to target. Another macroeconomic pain point that ended on November 12th was the U.S. government shutdown, which at the time was the longest in U.S. history. So why are institutional investors rushing to gold?
The simple answer is that larger institutional players typically respond to broad macro signals faster – including interest-rate direction and currency trends – and adjust their positioning accordingly.
No Recession, so Why the Rush to Gold?
The most recent drop in gold value towards the end of October wasn’t driven by negative news or skittish markets, but rather by profit-taking after all-time highs, while stocks were still performing relatively well. Generally, gold and stocks are negatively correlated. During periods of stock market growth, investors move away from gold seeking better returns elsewhere; when markets are unstable, investors tend to use gold as a store of wealth and a so-called “safe haven.”.
The reason why investors are rushing into gold now is simple: returns. The gold price began increasing more rapidly during the COVID pandemic, with its annual returns in 2020 reaching 25%. In the last two years, we have seen gold yield over 27% in 2024 and a staggering 40% YTD (as of November 2025). This makes 2025 the most profitable year gold markets have experienced since 1979, a period where markets were defined by the second oil crisis.
Fear, Instability, and the Weak Dollar
Many analysts continue to question whether AI is in clear bubble territory, with comparisons increasingly drawn to the dotcom era, which led to a recession and a stagnant job market for four years.
Eventually, investors will start asking for profits from their AI investments, and they might not be there to be paid.
This concern intensified at the start of November, when major global markets sold off sharply on renewed fears of an AI-driven valuation bubble, with sharp declines in leading technology stocks and weakness spilling over into other risk assets.
There is a notable confluence of market conditions, with both gold and stock markets climbing this year. Upon further analysis though, most of the stock market gains have been concentrated in a narrow set of AI-related themes. Further reinforcing this is Deutsche Bank’s speculation that without AI funding, the U.S. would already be in a recession.
On the other side of the dynamic, gold is being driven by a weak dollar and its robust returns since last year. There may even be a third factor at play, which is why central banks are bolstering their gold reserves: as Forbes states, almost every asset is currently overpriced.
What This Means for Retail Traders
At the moment, many market participants, including institutional traders, are on the fence about a lot of assets while snorting like bulls for others. Global trading provider Tickmill were generous enough to share insights into their clients’ activity, and the numbers paint a similar picture. Gold was Q3 2025’s standout asset, becoming the broker’s most traded instrument – it accounted for 13.9 million trades executed, and a value of $342 billion in volume.
The most interesting figure here might be the proportion of Tickmill’s traders who are bullish and bearish on gold. Throughout Q3 this year, their clients were practically split down the middle, with 51% of gold trades being long and 49% short. As of the middle of October, though, that shifted significantly: 73% of accounts holding gold were long, and only 27% went short. This shift appears to reflect the same changing market conditions influencing institutional demand.
The Takeaways
So what can retail traders and investors learn from their institutional counterparts? Institutional players are looking closely for any signs of shifting market sentiment. Justifiably so, since there is no consensus on whether assets are overpriced or if the significant AI investments supporting stock markets have created a valuation bubble. All of these factors are further compounded by the unpredictability of the geopolitical and economic policies of the world’s biggest economy, the U.S.
Gold is the go-to asset that helps manage market exposure during the instability these shifts may cause, and is widely used by institutional investors as a store of wealth, a safe-haven, and hedge against the potential volatility of more active assets like equities. This is why, as previously mentioned, gold and stocks are usually negatively correlated. But in the current climate, institutional investors also seem to be taking advantage of gold’s upward momentum and impressive returns.
A weak U.S. dollar is further stoking gold’s gleaming yellow fire, making it even more attractive to market participants buying in other currencies. The choice of EUR and GBP account base currencies offered by Tickmill extends this benefit to its traders.
In summary, retail traders looking to follow the “institutional playbook” on gold should gather as much information as possible and proactively look for any signs of potential reversals in current trends, market conditions, and sentiment – a strategy is only as effective as the conditions it is used within. Institutional investors have historically used the precious metal to reduce their market exposure to volatility, which is another effective approach. And while gold is always part of a diversified institutional portfolio, at the moment it’s also acting as a growth asset.
The Right Time with the Right Conditions for Gold
Trading gold with Tickmill gives traders access to some of the market’s most advantageous conditions, with extremely low XAUUSD spreads averaging just 7 cents, market-leading commissions at $3, and high execution quality. Not only can traders act quickly when news rolls in, but they can leverage their positions up to 1:1000, and plan their trades with the advanced tool and analysis features MT4 and MT5 have to offer.
The same market conditions shaping institutional demand for gold are now shaping how many retail traders think about uncertainty. Taking cues from that broader macro perspective – and pairing it with a structured, informed approach – can help traders navigate whatever the next phase of the market brings.
Last updated on November 28th, 2025 at 08:22 am
