Headline: USDCAD Outlook: Stocks Drive the Dollar as Fed Watch Intensifies
Introduction: The US dollar’s recent performance has been uneven but softer overall, even as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have eased. With equity market swings dictating risk sentiment, Treasury yields and the greenback have moved in tandem with stocks, keeping USDCAD in focus for forex traders.
The macro backdrop remains in flux ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Market pricing implies roughly a 42% probability of a rate cut, leaving incoming US data to steer expectations. A softer September jobs print may be discounted as backward-looking, but a strong reading could suggest conditions were improving even before recent rate cuts. Ultimately, November’s Nonfarm Payrolls will likely be the decisive release given the absence of November CPI before the meeting.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada trimmed rates by 25 bps at its last meeting, bringing policy to the lower bound of its 2.25%–3.25% neutral range. Policymakers signaled they are near the end of the cutting cycle but kept a conditional easing bias. Resilient domestic data—including firm employment and a Trimmed Mean CPI near 3%—supports a wait-and-see stance, anchoring the Canadian dollar.
From a technical perspective, USDCAD remains bid but sensitive to breaks in momentum. On the daily chart, a major trendline near 1.3970 is pivotal: buyers are likely to defend this area for a push to new highs, while a decisive break lower could open a move toward 1.3887. Intraday, a minor uptrend guides the current bullish tone, with initial support around 1.4015 where dip buyers may reemerge. A failure below that zone would weaken the short-term structure and increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward the daily trendline. This week’s calendar features ADP employment, FOMC minutes, the US NFP report alongside jobless claims, plus Canadian retail sales and US flash PMIs—releases that could inject volatility into USDCAD.
Key Points: – USD mixed but softer overall as stock market swings drive Treasury yields and FX moves – Market assigns about a 42% chance of a December Fed rate cut; upcoming US data is crucial – September jobs data may be downplayed unless strong; November NFP likely the key input before the FOMC – BoC cut 25 bps to the lower bound of its neutral range, hinting at a pause but keeping easing optional – Canadian data remains firm, with solid employment and Trimmed Mean CPI near 3% – USDCAD levels: major support/trendline near 1.3970, minor support around 1.4015; a break below could target 1.3887
