Dollar Mixed as Shutdown Deal Nears; Risk-On Lifts FX, Stocks, and Metals
Investor sentiment turned constructive as prospects for a U.S. government reopening improved, nudging risk assets higher and sending the U.S. dollar into a mixed session. Markets are positioning for delayed economic data to return once federal operations resume, shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
In foreign exchange, the greenback softened against the euro and pound while firming versus the yen, with traders watching EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY for confirmation of momentum. Broader risk-on flows extended to the commodity-linked majors, with AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD reflecting dollar weakness amid improved appetite for risk.
Washington developments dominated the macro backdrop. The Senate advanced a measure to break the impasse, paving the way for House approval and easing concerns around SNAP benefits, federal back pay, and holiday travel disruptions ahead of Thanksgiving. U.S. Treasury yields ticked 3–4 basis points higher, while stock futures climbed, led by tech benchmarks. Commodities and crypto participated in the rally: gold rose $95 (2.38%) to $4,095, silver gained $1.75 (3.63%) to $50.07, and bitcoin advanced about $1,297 to $106,011. If the government reopens, a backlog of reports—starting with September employment—should quickly feed into the Fed’s December rate debate.
Central banks signaled a cautious but evolving policy outlook. The Bank of Japan’s October summary showed growing support for a near-term hike contingent on sustained wage gains, while Board Member Junko Nakagawa emphasized a gradual, data-dependent path. In Australia, the RBA’s deputy governor underscored keeping policy restrictive to return inflation to target, with growth support from potential rate cuts later in 2025. The ECB reiterated that current settings remain appropriate, pending inflation and transmission dynamics, and at the Fed, Mary Daly highlighted openness to further rate cuts if warranted, noting easing labor demand and productivity gains that could support non-inflationary growth.
Key Points – USD mixed: weaker versus EUR and GBP, stronger against JPY; risk-on tone supports AUD, NZD, and CAD. – U.S. shutdown resolution advances in the Senate, easing concerns over SNAP payments, federal back pay, and Thanksgiving travel. – Yields up 3–4 bps; equity futures rise with tech leading; gold, silver, and bitcoin move higher. – Backlogged U.S. data—starting with September jobs—expected to guide the Fed’s December rate decision once released. – BOJ signals increasing readiness to normalize if wage gains hold; RBA maintains restrictive stance; ECB keeps rates steady; Fed’s Daly remains open to cuts if inflation risks recede.
