Keyrock: BTC Should Rally in Cryptos Transition Year in Bitcoin

Bitcoin BTC$74,191.24 should be trading higher than it is today.

That’s the view of Kevin de Patoul, CEO and co-founder of crypto investment firm Keyrock, who argues that the market is misreading both macro conditions and structural progress in digital assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $73,000 at the time of publication. Bitcoin is down about 18% year-to-date, having reached an all-time high of around $125,000 in early October last year.

“If you go back to early 2025 through 2026 and look at all the positive developments such as regulatory progress and institutional adoption, most people would have said that should make the price explode,” de Patoul said. “Increasing macro uncertainty should increase bitcoin demand, and yet it hasn’t.”

Instead, BTC has spent much of the past nine months under pressure, still behaving like a risk-on asset rather than the risk-off hedge many proponents claim it to be. Capital that flowed aggressively into bitcoin over the past 18 months, largely institutional, now appears more tactical than ideological.

“It’s still priced as a risk-on asset. Last in, first out in terms of capital allocation,” he said. “If investors perceive it that way, then in periods of stress they reduce exposure.”

Crypto assets have delivered a muted performance over the past six months, with bitcoin drifting well below its prior highs and much of the altcoin market struggling to sustain momentum. Trading volumes have thinned, volatility has compressed and broad-based rallies have failed to materialize, marking a sharp contrast to the speculative surges of previous cycles. Even as institutional adoption and tokenization efforts advance in the background, price action has remained subdued, reflecting cautious capital flows and a market searching for its next catalyst.

De Patoul stops short of saying the market is wrong. But he struggles to reconcile the pullback with the broader backdrop. “Nothing really explains the recent drop unless there’s a misunderstanding of the type of asset it’s supposed to be.”

That disconnect is emblematic of what he sees as crypto’s current moment: not a breakout cycle, but a structural transition.

“We’re not issuing stablecoins or taking retail deposits, but we’re connected to everything and provide liquidity across all venues,” de Patoul said. “That gives us a front-row seat to the evolution, and lets us participate in the market as it shifts toward digital assets and tokenized infrastructure.”

A tale of two markets

From Keyrock’s vantage point, working with banks, asset managers, issuers and exchanges, 2026 feels less like stagnation and more like rewiring.

“2026 feels like a transition year rather than a breakout one,” de Patoul said. “A lot of what defined crypto in previous cycles is dying out faster than expected, while the parts that actually make sense are still being built, like real finance moving onchain.”

In his view, two largely uncorrelated markets are developing in parallel.

The first is the crypto-native ecosystem: decentralized finance (DeFi), altcoins and the familiar cycle of liquidity and hype. Here, sentiment is subdued. The rising tide that once lifted all tokens has receded. Broad-based speculative rallies are harder to sustain, replaced by “very precise opportunities that make sense,” he said.

The second is the digitization of traditional finance. Tokenized money market funds, stablecoins, onchain funds and new market infrastructure. On that side, he says, he remains as enthusiastic as ever.

“When I speak to institutions, nothing has changed. The level of enthusiasm, the level of building, none of that drive has slowed,” de Patoul said. “The aim is to make crypto assets more accessible to clients and to rewire parts of financial markets.”

These institutional efforts are less sensitive to bitcoin’s price swings. Stablecoins, tokenized funds and settlement rails are about upgrading financial plumbing, not speculating on crypto’s next rally. Circle’s (CRCL) IPO and partnerships like Apollo’s tie-up with DeFi protocol Morpho reflect multi-year commitments, he noted.

But while the assets have been tokenized, the utility layer is still under construction.

Built, but not yet useful

The past 18 months marked a leap from concept to product. Funds were tokenized. Stablecoins proliferated. Infrastructure was deployed.

Yet liquidity remains thin in many tokenized money market funds and real-world assets (RWAs). The tokens exist, but often function as wrappers rather than transformative instruments.

“They’ve built the token. Now the question is: where can it be used? Who accepts it? Can it be used as collateral? Can it bring liquidity at scale?” de Patoul said.

Tokenizing a fund can, paradoxically, cut it off from traditional capital pools without immediately unlocking digital-native benefits. The bridge between traditional institutions and onchain markets, the ability to use tokenized assets seamlessly across both worlds, takes time.

“We’re stuck in an in-between phase,” he said. “The pieces are there. The next step is putting them together to bring liquidity at scale.”

That’s why he sees 2027 and 2028 as the real inflection point.

Traditional capital markets are orders of magnitude larger than crypto. Even a small percentage migrating onchain could eclipse crypto’s previous peak.

“In the course of 2027, we could get to a situation where RWAs grow to be as big as the whole of crypto was in the past,” de Patoul said. “It’s going to play out over the next two to three years.”

Digital finance, in other words, may outgrow crypto, though not necessarily in the form of a price-led boom.

“If the utility were fully there today, we’d probably have a booming market,” he said. “But it’s not. This is a transition phase.”

Keyrock’s bet

Founded eight years ago on the thesis that all assets would eventually be digital and onchain, Keyrock is positioning itself as a bridge between traditional and digital finance.

Historically rooted in capital markets and market-making, the firm continues to expand its crypto-native offerings, derivatives trading, liquidity provision and tailored strategies for investors. In September, it launched Keyrock Asset Management, adding a second pillar to the business. Assets under management remain modest given the recent launch, de Patoul said.

The broader ambition is to evolve from tokenization toward functionality: making digital assets genuinely useful at scale.

“A very big focus for us is how you move from tokenizing products to making those assets useful, and tokenizing at scale,” he said.

Regulatory clarity remains a gating factor. De Patoul points to the proposed Clarity Act as a “yellow flag,” not because he doubts its eventual passage, but because timing matters. “If it’s derailed for two years, it will have a meaningful impact,” he said. “Regulations getting passed is a massive deal for institutions. That’s when they can invest at scale.”

For now, crypto’s price action may feel uninspiring. But from de Patoul’s vantage point, the quiet build-out of digital market infrastructure is far more consequential than a short-term rally.

“The foundations are going in,” he said, “but the scale is yet to come.” This is why he sees “2027 and 2028 as the real inflection point for digital markets.”

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