Key Developments
Risk markets are taking new legs lower on Friday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump seemingly quashed any chance of some sort of negotiated settlement with Iran.
“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” said the president in a Truth Social post.
The news sent WTI crude oil to a multi-year high near $90 per barrel, and in turn sent Nasdaq futures lower by 1.8%. That hit crypto prices as well, pushing bitcoin to new session lows, down 5% at $68,800.
U.S. payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs in February, highlighting a cooling U.S. labor market just as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions complicate the Federal Reserve’s outlook. The unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.4% from 4.3% the previous month.
Market Context
The weak report reinforces a broader slowdown in hiring that has been building over the past year.
What To Watch
“Let me put this another way: The U.S. economy has lost jobs since April 2025,” economist Heather Long wrote on X. “Total job gains from May 2025 to February 2026 are now -19,000. Companies are not hiring in the face of all of these headwinds and uncertainty.”
Normally, data like this would have the Federal Reserve busily cutting rates, but the central bank continues to face inflation that remains above its 2% target, and the sharp rise in oil threatens to worsen the price outlook.
For the moment, interest rate traders continue to bet on little chance for an imminent rate cut. The odds of a March cut are just 4% and an April cut only 17%.
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