HP beats Q4 sales but trims 2026 EPS view; up to 6,000 job cuts signal caution for tech risk appetite
HP Inc. delivered a modest fourth-quarter beat on revenue and EPS, but its softer 2026 earnings outlook and a new restructuring plan with up to 6,000 layoffs underscore a guarded demand backdrop—an incremental headwind for broader tech sentiment, Nasdaq-linked risk appetite, and rate-sensitive FX positioning.
At a glance
- Q4 revenue: US$14.64 billion vs ~US$14.53 billion consensus
- Q4 adjusted EPS: US$0.93 vs US$0.92 expected
- FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance: US$2.90–US$3.20 (below ~US$3.32 Street view)
- FY2026 free cash flow: US$2.8–3.0 billion
- Restructuring: 4,000–6,000 job cuts by end-FY2028; ~US$1 billion gross run-rate savings, ~US$650 million restructuring charges
- Strategic focus: AI-PC transition, workflow productivity solutions, manufacturing footprint optimization
Why this matters for markets and FX
HP’s print and PC-heavy mix makes its outlook a useful read-through on enterprise and consumer hardware demand into 2026. The EPS guide below consensus may:
- Temper risk-on appetite in tech-adjacent equities where positioning is crowded, potentially nudging implied volatility higher.
- Feed into the macro debate: softer forward earnings can argue for a gentler growth pulse, typically supportive of lower long-end yields—though any risk-off tone can conversely lend the U.S. dollar haven support.
- Inform global equities outside the U.S., given HP’s international footprint and currency exposures across supply chains and sales.
Inside the numbers
Top line and profitability
HP posted US$14.64 billion in Q4 revenue, modestly ahead of estimates, with adjusted EPS of US$0.93. Management flagged ongoing macro headwinds and supply chain cost pressures, particularly across print and personal systems.
2026 outlook and cash generation
The company guided FY2026 non-GAAP EPS to US$2.90–US$3.20, shy of the Street’s ~US$3.32, alongside US$2.8–3.0 billion in free cash flow. That level of FCF still preserves flexibility for dividends and buybacks, but it implies a more measured earnings trajectory as HP pivots to AI-PCs and workflow software.
Restructuring to defend margins
HP plans to cut 4,000–6,000 roles by FY2028, targeting about US$1 billion in gross run-rate savings, with ~US$650 million in restructuring charges. The program is aimed at protecting margins through the demand cycle and funding the shift toward higher-value PC and print solutions.
Macro and trading takeaways
– Equities: Cautious 2026 EPS marks add to a mixed earnings tape for hardware, a segment more exposed to pricing discipline and unit volatility than software mega caps. Watch Nasdaq futures and sector rotation into defensives if guidance disappointments broaden.
– Rates and FX: A cooler earnings glide path can be modestly disinflationary for capex and goods pricing at the margin. That may bias Treasury yields lower on growth concerns, though any equity wobble could support the dollar via haven flows. Range-bound dynamics in EUR/USD and USD/JPY may persist until data dislodge the growth-yield narrative.
– Positioning: For multi-asset traders, pair tech cyclicals with duration hedges or USD longs during risk-off episodes; fade extremes if yields stabilize and AI-PC adoption accelerates.
What to watch next
– AI-PC ramp: Unit mix, pricing power, and attach rates for services and workflow software.
– Print margins: Consumables elasticity and channel inventory normalization.
– Cost execution: Cadence of savings versus restructuring costs through FY2028.
– Capital returns: Pace of buybacks relative to the US$2.8–3.0 billion FCF guide.
– Global demand signals: Corporate PC refresh cycles, SMB spending, and China/EM trends that filter back to FX and commodities via supply chains.
FAQ
What did HP report for the quarter?
HP posted Q4 revenue of US$14.64 billion and adjusted EPS of US$0.93, both slightly ahead of consensus.
How does the 2026 guidance compare to expectations?
HP’s FY2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook of US$2.90–US$3.20 is below the Street’s ~US$3.32, suggesting a more cautious earnings path into next year.
What is the scope of the restructuring?
The company plans to eliminate 4,000–6,000 jobs by FY2028, targeting about US$1 billion in gross run-rate savings and incurring approximately US$650 million in restructuring charges.
Why is this relevant for FX traders?
Hardware guidance can influence growth expectations, yields, and risk sentiment. Softer outlooks often pressure yields lower, which can weaken the dollar, but risk-off flows can simultaneously support the USD as a safe haven—making currency reactions path-dependent.
What does the free cash flow guide imply for shareholders?
HP expects US$2.8–3.0 billion in FCF for FY2026, leaving room for dividends and buybacks while funding the AI-PC transition and efficiency measures.
What are the key risks and catalysts ahead?
Risks include slower enterprise refresh cycles, supply chain cost stickiness, and print consumables demand. Catalysts include AI-PC adoption, margin expansion from restructuring, and any improvement in global demand conditions. According to a BPayNews analysis, these factors will shape how tech earnings feed into yields and the dollar over the coming quarters.
Last updated on November 25th, 2025 at 09:28 pm
