Fed Cut Bets Power a Four-Day Risk Rally as AI Stocks Split, Crypto Rebounds and UK Oil Tax Clouds Supply
Risk appetite returned across global markets as traders priced in a softer Fed path, lifting equities and crypto for a fourth straight session even as November’s drawdowns linger. Tech leadership was uneven—Micron surged on AI memory demand while Nvidia slid on valuation worries—while energy sentiment softened amid UK tax headwinds.
Market overview
Softening US yields and sliding rate volatility underpinned a broad risk bid, with the dollar easing against high-beta FX and cyclicals leading in equities. Futures markets leaned into early-2025 Fed easing hopes, helping duration-sensitive growth names, though dispersion inside the AI complex remained stark. In commodities, oil’s medium-term outlook grew murkier after the UK confirmed new North Sea approvals but extended its windfall levy, a move industry warns could depress investment and future output.
Market highlights
- ServiceNow trades about one-third below its 52-week peak; analysts flag roughly 45% upside from here, despite year-to-date underperformance versus the Nasdaq.
- Nvidia dropped about 11% amid chatter of an AI bubble and rising competition, even as orders for its next-gen Blackwell chips reportedly swell.
- Micron has nearly doubled in three months, outpacing the tech sector as price targets were lifted toward $338 on accelerating AI-related memory demand.
- Bitcoin rebounded toward the $91,000 area and Ether rose around 3%, with robust inflows into XRP-focused products; crypto remains closely tethered to US risk sentiment.
- ConocoPhillips is down a little over 20% from its peak and trails exploration peers year-to-date; the Street still sees scope for roughly 30% upside with predominantly “Strong Buy” ratings.
- Global equities extended a four-session advance on expectations of Fed cuts, but November’s losses continue to weigh; attention swings to December catalysts.
- The UK greenlit additional North Sea oil and gas projects while keeping its windfall levy in place until 2030, stoking concerns over long-term investment and production.
FX and rates: risk-on returns, but durability is in question
Lower US yields and cooling front-end rate volatility supported equities and high-beta FX. The dollar eased against growth-sensitive pairs as traders marked up odds of early-2025 policy easing, though the path remains data-dependent. If upcoming US inflation prints and labor data corroborate the disinflation trend, the dollar’s carry advantage could narrow further, strengthening pro-cyclical currencies and supporting emerging-market FX.
For now, positioning remains cautious after November’s selloff; dips in US yields continue to draw buyers, and liquidity conditions into year-end can amplify moves. A hawkish pushback from Fed speakers or upside surprises in core inflation would quickly revive the dollar and dent risk sentiment.
AI trade bifurcates: semis vs software
AI-heavyweights moved in opposite directions. Nvidia’s slide reflects worries about stretched multiples and intensifying competition from hyperscalers developing in-house silicon, even amid strong Blackwell demand signals. By contrast, Micron’s outsized run underscores how memory pricing and capacity tightness can leverage AI server buildouts. On the software side, ServiceNow’s discount to its 52-week high—and bullish analyst targets—highlight potential catch-up if rate headwinds ease and enterprise AI monetization accelerates.
Energy: UK policy uncertainty and COP underperformance
Oil equities traded choppy as the UK’s decision to maintain its windfall tax through 2030 overshadowed new North Sea approvals. Producers warn extended levies deter investment and could accelerate output declines later in the decade. ConocoPhillips’ slide of just over 20% from its highs mirrors broader energy softness; analysts still see upside if crude stabilizes and capex discipline persists. For FX, prolonged UK fiscal pressure on the sector adds a marginal headwind to UK investment flows, with indirect implications for sterling over the medium term.
Crypto: buoyant but still beta to US risk
Bitcoin’s bounce and Ether’s gains came alongside stronger flows into XRP-linked exchange-traded products, reflecting improved risk appetite. Correlation with US equities remains elevated; any hawkish repricing in rates would likely curb momentum. Volatility is still above major FX benchmarks, so position sizing remains critical.
What traders are watching next
– US labor-market prints and the next core inflation read for confirmation of the disinflation trend
– Fed communication into December and early 2025 rate-path signaling
– AI hardware order visibility and enterprise software AI monetization updates
– UK energy investment plans and any tweaks to windfall-tax relief mechanisms
– Crypto ETF flows and liquidity conditions into year-end
FAQ
How are Fed rate-cut expectations affecting the dollar and global equities?
Rising odds of early-2025 cuts have pushed US yields lower and softened the dollar, improving financial conditions. That has supported a four-session equity rebound and boosted high-beta FX. The durability depends on incoming inflation and labor data.
Why did Nvidia fall while Micron surged?
Nvidia’s pullback reflects valuation concerns and growing competition chatter, despite strong interest in its Blackwell chips. Micron, meanwhile, benefits from tightening memory supply and AI server demand, which has driven significant earnings upgrades and price-target hikes.
Is ServiceNow’s underperformance an opportunity?
ServiceNow trades well below its 52-week high even as analysts cite roughly 45% upside. If yields stay contained and enterprise AI adoption broadens, the stock could see catch-up potential, though execution and macro risks remain.
What does the UK’s windfall tax extension mean for oil markets?
Keeping the levy in place through 2030 may discourage North Sea investment, raising the risk of steeper medium-term production declines. That dynamic could tighten regional supply over time, a potential mild tailwind for Brent if demand holds.
Are cryptocurrencies decoupling from equities?
Not meaningfully. Bitcoin’s rebound and Ether’s gains came alongside broader risk-on sentiment. Crypto remains sensitive to US rate expectations and equity volatility, even as ETF flows add a structural bid.
What are the key near-term catalysts for FX?
US core inflation, labor-market data, and Fed guidance into December are pivotal. Softer data would likely weigh on the dollar and support cyclicals, while a hawkish surprise or sticky inflation could revive USD strength and pressure risk assets.
Reporting by BPayNews.
