Dollar slides as Wall Street sets fresh highs as traders price December Fed cut; NZD in focus before RBNZ
The US dollar retreated broadly while stocks pushed to new highs and Treasury yields slipped, as markets boosted the odds of a December rate cut to 83%. Chip headlines weighed on Nvidia and AMD, but tech losses were overshadowed by a wider risk-on bid ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ decision.
Risk rally dents the dollar, lifts global stocks
The greenback weakened against all major peers, led by losses versus the yen (-0.52%) and the pound (-0.47%) ahead of the UK budget. The euro gained 0.41% against the dollar, while moves versus commodity FX were more modest, ranging from -0.06% against the Canadian dollar to -0.20% versus the New Zealand dollar.
US equities reversed early tech weakness to close higher across the board—the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.43%, the S&P 500 added 0.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.67%. European stocks also finished solidly higher, with Spain’s IBEX outperforming.
Data mix: cooler consumption, firm producer prices, slumping confidence
A backlog of delayed releases—following recent government disruptions—was paired with fresh November readings, painting a nuanced macro picture.
– Retail sales for September rose 0.2% (0.3% ex-autos), undershooting the 0.4% consensus. The control group that feeds GDP fell 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.3% rise.
– Producer prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, driven by energy, with core PPI up 0.2%. Year-on-year PPI advanced 2.7%.
– Conference Board consumer confidence slid to 88.7 in November (vs 93.4 expected), with the Expectations Index dropping to 63.2—consistent with rising recession risk signals.
– The Richmond Fed composite index fell to -15 from -4, pointing to deepening regional contraction.
– The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 eased to 4.0% from 4.2%.
Housing: prices resilient, sales perk up
– S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in September, up 1.4% year-on-year, in line with estimates.
– Pending home sales jumped 1.9% in October, beating the 0.5% consensus, suggesting some stabilization in transactions as mortgage rate volatility cools.
Treasuries, deficit and a chunky 5-year auction
Treasury yields fell as rate-cut bets accelerated:
- 2-year: 3.458% (-3.0 bps)
- 5-year: 3.563% (-4.1 bps)
- 10-year: 4.001% (-3.4 bps)
- 30-year: 4.658% (-1.8 bps)
The US sold $70 billion of 5-year notes at a high yield of 3.562% amid strong demand for duration. Fiscal headlines were less friendly: October’s budget deficit widened to $284 billion, missing a $235.05 billion estimate.
Policy watch: dovish tilt, Fed chair chatter, China tone
Markets raised the implied probability of a December rate cut to 83%—up sharply from around 35% last week—after recent remarks from Fed officials reinforced a more accommodative bias. Fed’s Miran said the economy “calls for large interest rate cuts,” while political and policy headlines added to the mix: a White House economic adviser said Kevin Hassett is viewed as a frontrunner for Fed chair, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said she will conduct second-round interviews with nominees while describing US–China ties as “in a good place.”
Chips in focus: Google’s TPU push hits Nvidia; Meta, Broadcom climb
Reports that Google and Meta are exploring shifting AI workloads toward Google’s in-house TPUs pressured GPU incumbents. Nvidia fell 2.59% and AMD dropped 4.15% after opening weaker, while Broadcom—linked to Google’s custom chip supply—rose 1.87%. Meta rallied 3.78% on hopes that cheaper compute could trim capex plans. Despite the sector churn, broader indices finished higher.
FX watch: NZD at multi-month low into RBNZ
Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25 bps. NZD/USD fell to 0.5575—its lowest since April 10—before rebounding to 0.5620. The pair sits between its 200-hour moving average at 0.5632 and the 100-hour at 0.5605; a break either way could define near-term momentum. Yen strength tracked lower US yields, while sterling outperformed on budget-watch positioning.
Commodities and crypto
Crude oil slipped $0.80 to $50.05. Gold edged down $5.11 to $4,129. Bitcoin fell $1,000 to $87,276. Geopolitical sentiment was mixed after former President Donald Trump said a Ukraine deal may be “very close,” though traders treated the headline cautiously.
Market snapshot
- US dollar fell across majors; largest moves versus JPY (-0.52%), GBP (-0.47%), EUR (-0.41%).
- US stocks closed higher: Dow +1.43%, S&P 500 +0.91%, Nasdaq +0.67%.
- Rate-cut odds for December rose to 83%; Treasury yields moved lower across the curve.
- US 5-year auction: $70B sold at 3.562% high yield.
- September retail sales +0.2% (miss), PPI +0.3% m/m; consumer confidence fell to 88.7.
- Pending home sales +1.9% m/m; Case-Shiller +1.4% y/y.
- Nvidia -2.59%, AMD -4.15%, Broadcom +1.87%, Meta +3.78% amid AI chip rotation.
- NZD/USD holds 0.5605–0.5632 intraday band ahead of expected RBNZ 25 bp cut.
- US October deficit widened to $284B.
FAQ
Why did the US dollar fall today?
The dollar weakened as traders ramped up December Fed rate-cut bets to about 83%, pushing Treasury yields lower and supporting risk appetite. Strong equity gains and a better tone in Europe also encouraged rotation out of the greenback.
What do today’s US data say about the economy?
The data were mixed: September retail sales missed, PPI inflation was firm on energy, and November consumer confidence slid sharply. Regional activity (Richmond Fed) contracted further. Overall, the mix leans slightly dovish for the Fed.
How did the 5-year Treasury auction impact markets?
A well-absorbed $70B sale at a 3.562% high yield fit a broader bid for duration as policy expectations turned more dovish. Yields fell across the curve, reinforcing dollar softness and supporting equities.
What could the RBNZ decision mean for NZD/USD?
A widely expected 25 bp cut is largely priced. The immediate NZD/USD reaction will hinge on guidance: a hawkish cut or signals of a shallow easing path could spark a short squeeze above 0.5632, while a dovish tilt risks a break below 0.5605 toward recent lows.
How did AI-chip headlines affect tech stocks?
Reports that Google and Meta may shift workloads to Google’s TPUs pressured GPU leaders—Nvidia and AMD—while lifting potential TPU beneficiaries like Broadcom and Meta. The rotation hit semi sentiment early but didn’t derail the broader index rally.
Which FX pairs were most active?
USD/JPY led with yen strength on falling US yields; GBP/USD firmed ahead of the UK budget; EUR/USD advanced on broad dollar weakness. NZD/USD was volatile as traders positioned into the RBNZ decision, holding between 0.5605 and 0.5632 intraday.
What policy headlines moved rates today?
Dovish-leaning commentary from Fed officials, speculation that Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for Fed chair, and remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent—who continues interviews with nominees and noted improved US–China ties—all fed into easier policy expectations and lower yields.
This article was produced by BPayNews to inform FX and macro-focused investors.
Last updated on November 25th, 2025 at 10:22 pm
