Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are showing very different profiles in 2026. Gold has climbed 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin is down roughly 30% over the same stretch.
One analyst said that the gap lines up with steady growth in global money supply, cooling appetite for risky tech stocks, and falling crypto exchange balances. Together, these changes are shaping how both assets are trading in the market.
Rising liquidity and tech stock speculation fail to supercharge Bitcoin
In an X post, Fidelity director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer said that gold has behaved as expected in a bull market, with sharp pullbacks attracting short-term buyers. Timmer described gold as a pure “hard money” asset that has tracked global money supply growth closely.
Bitcoin follows the global money supply growth over time, shown by the steady rise in global M2 (orange line). When M2 expands, BTC has generally trended higher. However, the chart shows that Bitcoin’s strongest rallies occurred when liquidity growth aligned with rising software and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks, each being a proxy for speculative appetite.
In 2017–2018 and again in 2020–2021, the software stocks posted gains of roughly 58% and 93% year-over-year, and Bitcoin price rallied sharply during those periods. In 2022, software stocks fell by around 58%, and Bitcoin experienced a deep drawdown even as the money supply levels stayed elevated.
The data shows that money supply growth supports the long-term trend, while shifts in tech-sector speculation tend to amplify or dampen Bitcoin’s price swings. This indicates that Bitcoin carries hard money exposure and high-beta characteristics, amplifying moves in both directions.
Timmer noted that liquidity is ample while speculative sentiment sits in a bear phase. In this scenario, gold and money supply have rallied together, while Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace.
Gold draws demand on crypto exchanges
Demand on crypto-native platforms has also rotated toward gold-linked products. On Jan. 5, Binance launched 24-hour, 7-day gold futures trading. The cumulative volume of this product is approaching $35 billion, with more than $4 billion recorded on the most active day. The weekly volume averages about $4.7 billion, according to crypto analyst Darkfost.
Activity accelerated immediately after gold posted a two-day correction exceeding 20%. The spike highlights the demand for tokenized exposure to traditional hard assets within crypto venues.
At the same time, CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s total portfolio value across BTC, ETH, XRP, and major ERC20 and TRC20 stablecoins has fallen to roughly $102 billion. That marks the lowest reading since April 2025, down from about $140 billion in August 2025.
The $38 billion decline reflects lower asset prices and user withdrawals into self-custody during bearish volatility.
For Bitcoin, this points to reduced capital on exchanges, which may signal cautious trader positioning and thin near-term liquidity.
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