Wall Street’s year-end rally hits a snag as Microsoft and Nvidia stall below key trend lines
US stocks have climbed in five of the past six sessions, but momentum into year-end is confronting a technical speed bump: Microsoft and Nvidia remain capped beneath their 100- and 200-hour moving averages, leaving leadership concentrated in Apple and Alphabet while Meta sits in neutral.
Key Points
- Microsoft and Nvidia failed intraday attempts to reclaim their 100-hour MAs and remain below their 200-hour MAs — a near-term bearish setup.
- Apple and Alphabet are comfortably above both 100- and 200-hour MAs, helping to prop up broader indices.
- Meta is mixed: above its 100-hour MA but below the 200-hour MA, with resistance capping gains intraday.
- Without megacap breadth, a sustained rally could struggle — a risk that matters for equity beta, the US dollar, and high-beta FX.
Market overview
The recent equity grind higher has improved risk sentiment, but participation remains uneven across the megacap complex. Traders say a durable “Santa rally” typically requires confirmation from multiple bellwethers, especially those most tightly linked to AI spending and cloud demand. Liquidity thinning into December can amplify moves around well-watched technical levels, keeping the focus squarely on hourly trend lines for signals.
Cross-asset context matters: if tech leadership falters again, equities’ wobble could underpin the US dollar and pressure high-beta and commodity-linked FX, while risk-on follow-through would likely weigh on the greenback and support cyclical currencies.
Bellwethers under pressure: Microsoft and Nvidia
Microsoft (MSFT) — short-term bearish
MSFT has bounced off last week’s low near $464.89 but stalled at a well-defined resistance band around the 100-hour MA (~$492). Today’s push to $493.50 faded, with price rotating back below that moving average and trading near $490. Bulls need a sustained break above $492 to reassert control, with the 200-hour MA near $505 the next hurdle. Below those levels, sellers retain the upper hand.
Nvidia (NVDA) — short-term bearish
NVDA’s rebound from last week’s low around $169.55 has repeatedly met resistance at the 100-hour MA (~$184.07). An intraday push to $185.66 failed to hold, leaving price back under the 100-hour marker near $181. Bulls need to recapture the 100-hour MA and then the 200-hour MA (~$189.34) to strengthen the case. Until then, sellers remain in control.
Leaders still carrying the tape: Apple and Alphabet
Apple (AAPL) — bullish
Apple trades at record territory around $285.58 (up ~0.9%) and sits well above its 100-hour MA (~$274.14) and 200-hour MA (~$270.80). Dips toward those trend lines may attract buyers; a decisive break below would be needed to flip bias.
Alphabet (GOOGL) — bullish
Alphabet is up around $316.72 and holds above the 100-hour MA (~$299.70) and 200-hour MA (~$286.75), both rising. It remains below last week’s all-time high near $329.30. There’s a small price gap roughly between $306.4–$309.6; a move back through that pocket would give sellers a window, but the broader trend stays constructive while above the hourly MAs.
On the fence: Meta
Meta Platforms (META) — neutral
Meta is mixed near $647.10 (up ~0.9%). Price sits above the 100-hour MA (~$614.33) but remains just below the 200-hour MA (~$648.59), with today’s high stalling near $647.67. A sustained push through the 200-hour MA would brighten the outlook; repeated rejection risks a pullback toward the 100-hour trend line.
Why this matters for FX and macro
– Equity leadership concentration can raise fragility: if MSFT/NVDA fail to confirm the uptrend, a risk-off wobble could lift the US dollar and weigh on high-beta FX (AUD, NZD, NOK) and EM currencies.
– Conversely, renewed breadth across megacaps would likely support risk appetite, soften the dollar, and bolster cyclical FX.
– With year-end liquidity thinning and macro catalysts still in play, hourly moving averages on these bellwethers are becoming de facto sentiment gauges across assets.
FAQ
Can US stocks extend a year-end rally without Microsoft and Nvidia confirming?
A rally can continue for a time on the strength of leaders like Apple and Alphabet, but history suggests sustained advances usually require broader megacap participation. Without confirmation from MSFT and NVDA, upside may be more fragile and prone to reversals.
What are the critical technical levels to watch?
– MSFT: $492 (100-hour MA) and $505 (200-hour MA). Above both turns the bias bullish.
– NVDA: $184.07 (100-hour MA) and $189.34 (200-hour MA). Holding above both would hand control to buyers.
– AAPL: Support at $274.14 (100-hour MA) and $270.80 (200-hour MA).
– GOOGL: Supports at $299.70 (100-hour MA) and $286.75 (200-hour MA); resistance near the $329.30 record high.
– META: Resistance at $648.59 (200-hour MA); support at $614.33 (100-hour MA).
How could this equity setup influence the US dollar and major FX pairs?
If tech underperforms and risk appetite fades, the dollar typically benefits as a safe haven, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD while boosting USD/JPY and the dollar versus high-beta FX. A broadening rally led by megacaps would likely have the opposite effect.
What might flip the equity bias in the short term?
A decisive reclaim of the 100- and 200-hour MAs by Microsoft and Nvidia would likely validate risk-on sentiment. Conversely, a failure at these levels — or a break below Apple’s and Alphabet’s 100-hour averages — would warn of weakening breadth and rising downside risks.
What are the main risks for traders into year-end?
Liquidity typically thins, which can exaggerate moves around technical inflection points and widen gaps. Watch for headline sensitivity to macro data and policy commentary. In this environment, the hourly MAs on the megacaps are key prompts for equity beta and cross-asset positioning, BPayNews notes.
