Dollar edges higher into month-end as Black Friday thins liquidity; gold extends gains on softer-yield backdrop
The dollar held slightly firmer into the London fix as Black Friday holiday conditions and an overnight CME data center glitch kept liquidity thin. European data were mixed, US 10-year yields hovered just below 4%, and gold firmed as traders leaned into a dovish Fed narrative, BPayNews observed.
Key points
- The dollar steadied: EUR/USD slipped about 0.2% near 1.1570; GBP/USD down 0.2% around 1.3211; USD/JPY was marginally lower to 156.15 as the yen led G10 gains; NZD lagged with NZD/USD down 0.4% near 0.5707; USD/CAD was flat around 1.4027.
- Rates and risk: US 10-year yields eased to roughly 3.99% (-0.6 bps); European equities were slightly higher; US stocks face a holiday-shortened session.
- Gold rose about 0.4% as buyers tested a potential technical breakout into December; WTI crude added roughly 0.7%.
- Crypto tone steady: Bitcoin edged up, holding above $90,000.
- Euro-area signals mixed: ECB survey showed 1-year inflation expectations nudging up; November CPI prints varied—France 0.9% y/y (vs 1.0% expected), Italy 1.2% (vs 1.3%), Spain 3.0% (vs 2.9%), Bavaria steady at 2.2%.
- Growth check: France Q3 GDP confirmed at +0.5% q/q; Italy revised to +0.1%; Switzerland contracted -0.5% q/q.
- Germany’s backdrop: unemployment rose by 1k (vs 5k expected), October retail sales -0.3% m/m (vs +0.2% expected), import prices +0.2% m/m.
- Backdrop: Liquidity was curtailed by the Thanksgiving/Black Friday calendar and an overnight CME data center glitch; month-end rebalancing and the London fix were key intraday catalysts.
- Geopolitics: China sought a formal explanation from Malaysia regarding a trade deal with the US, adding modest headline risk.
FX: Dollar steadies into the London fix as month-end flows dominate
Muted participation defined Friday’s FX tape, with most G10 pairs constrained by thin liquidity and optically small ranges. The dollar stabilized after a week of losses, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD drifting lower while USD/JPY eased as the yen outperformed. Month-end rebalancing was the near-term focus, especially around the London fix, with dealers flagging light interest and wider-than-usual spreads after the CME disruption.
The kiwi underperformed as earlier-week gains were pared, while USD/CAD hugged the flatline amid quiet North American dealing. Overall volatility stayed subdued, consistent with holiday-thinned turnover.
Rates: Sub-4% Treasuries underpin precious metals
US 10-year yields slipped to around 3.99%, reinforcing the recent downshift in term premium and bolstering gold. Rates markets remain sensitive to incoming growth and inflation signals, with softer data bias and a perceived dovish tilt from the Fed offering a tailwind to duration and non-yielding assets. Friday’s half-day US session further dampened activity, leaving month-end flows as the dominant force.
Europe: Mixed inflation and growth complicate ECB optics
Eurozone signals were uneven. National CPI flashes showed France and Italy undershooting expectations—consistent with the broader disinflation narrative—while Spain surprised slightly higher. An ECB survey indicated a small uptick in one-year inflation expectations, a nuance that could temper the pace of future policy normalization if it persists.
On growth, France’s Q3 GDP was confirmed at a solid +0.5% q/q and Italy nudged up to +0.1%, but Switzerland contracted -0.5% q/q, highlighting divergent momentum across the region. In Germany, labor conditions softened less than feared with a 1k rise in unemployment, though consumer demand looks soft as retail sales fell 0.3% m/m and import prices rose modestly.
Commodities: Gold’s bid persists; oil edges higher
Gold advanced about 0.4% as traders tested the upper end of recent ranges into the month’s close, supported by lower yields and a softer dollar earlier in the week. The technical tone remains constructive ahead of December trading. WTI crude rose around 0.7%, aided by the broader risk tone and tight holiday liquidity, though follow-through may hinge on upcoming supply headlines and demand indicators.
Equities and crypto: Stocks hold gains, Bitcoin steady above 90k
European indices were modestly higher, retaining weekly gains. US equities face a holiday-shortened, low-liquidity session with limited macro catalysts. In digital assets, Bitcoin’s hold above $90,000 kept risk sentiment supported on the margin, with traders eyeing weekend volatility in thin conditions.
What to watch next
– Month-end rebalancing into the London fix could stir brief FX dislocations.
– Early December trade opens without the usual US nonfarm payrolls; the release is slated for December 16, after the Fed meeting.
– Incoming European CPI revisions, ECB commentary, and US growth data will shape near-term rate expectations and FX direction.
FAQ
Why was liquidity so thin today?
Black Friday and the tail end of the US Thanksgiving holiday typically suppress market participation. An overnight CME data center glitch further reduced activity, widening bid-ask spreads and keeping ranges tight.
What drove the dollar’s slight rebound?
Month-end rebalancing and position squaring supported the greenback after a soft week. With US 10-year yields near 4% and a light data calendar, FX moves were mostly flow-driven rather than headline-driven.
How do today’s European CPI and GDP prints affect the euro?
Mixed national CPI readings keep the disinflation story intact but not uniform, while the ECB’s survey showing a small rise in 1-year inflation expectations adds nuance. Growth remains patchy. Net-net, the data lean slightly euro-neutral to soft, limiting EUR/USD upside in thin trade.
Why is gold pushing higher?
Gold is benefiting from lower real yields and a softer dollar tone this week. Traders also see support from expectations that the Fed will stay cautious on tightening, improving the non-yielding metal’s appeal into December.
What are the immediate catalysts into month-end?
The London fix and related month-end rebalancing flows are the main near-term catalysts. After that, attention turns to early-December central bank signals and, unusually, a delayed US nonfarm payrolls release expected on December 16.
