European markets drift as U.S. Thanksgiving thins liquidity; FX rangebound, oil edges higher
European trading was subdued on Thursday as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday drained liquidity, leaving major FX pairs stuck in tight ranges while European equities ticked modestly higher and oil inched up.
At a glance
- Thin liquidity with Wall Street closed; European stocks slightly firmer, S&P 500 futures flat
- NZD outperforms, CHF lags; EUR/USD ~1.1585, USD/JPY ~156.35, GBP/USD ~1.3230
- ECB minutes stress uncertainty; Kazaks says it’s premature to discuss rate cuts
- BOJ’s Noguchi: steady progress toward 2% inflation; warns further yen weakness may lift underlying inflation
- Eurozone confidence -14.2 (final); M3 money supply +2.8% y/y; Germany GfK -23.2
- Italy industrial sales +2.1% m/m; business confidence 89.6 vs 88.5 expected
- Gold consolidating in a technical pennant; WTI firmer; Bitcoin rebounds toward $91,000
Market snapshot
- FX: NZD leads, CHF lags; the dollar broadly little changed
- Equities: European indices modestly higher; U.S. futures flat
- Commodities: Gold down ~0.2% near $4,156; WTI crude up ~0.4% around $58.89
- Crypto: Bitcoin up ~1.0% near $91,127
FX: holiday trade keeps ranges tight
With U.S. desks largely offline, traders faced thin order books and muted price discovery. The dollar was broadly steady, leaving EUR/USD hovering near 1.1585. USD/JPY churned around 156.35 after an early lift from the mid-155s, reflecting choppy flows as both currencies shared a soft tone. GBP/USD retained most of its post-budget gains around 1.3230 despite a slight intraday dip.
NZD outperformed at the margin, while CHF lagged, a typical risk-on tilt in light liquidity. Volatility remained suppressed, with few catalysts to break ranges as month-end positioning was kept in check by the U.S. holiday, BPayNews observed.
Equities: mild bid amid thin flows
European bourses posted small gains, extending the week’s constructive risk tone. But with U.S. markets shut, conviction was limited and volumes light. S&P 500 futures were flat, underscoring the lack of cross-asset direction.
Central banks: ECB stays cautious; BOJ monitors yen pass-through
ECB minutes reiterated that heightened uncertainty warranted holding rates steady, and Latvia’s Martins Kazaks said it was too early to discuss cuts. The message maintains a higher-for-longer bias until inflation risks abate more convincingly.
From Japan, BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said the economy is making steady headway toward the inflation target but warned that further yen depreciation could feed into underlying price pressures. The remarks keep attention on the currency channel even as the BOJ stays patient on policy normalization.
Data: Eurozone sentiment soft, Italy shows pockets of strength
- Eurozone consumer confidence (Nov, final): -14.2, matching the flash estimate
- M3 money supply (Oct): +2.8% y/y, in line with expectations
- Germany GfK (Dec): -23.2, as expected
- Italy industrial sales (Sep): +2.1% m/m
- Italy business confidence (Nov): 89.6 vs 88.5 expected
Overall, the bloc’s sentiment remains subdued, though Italy offered rare bright spots across industry and business surveys.
Commodities and crypto: gold coils, oil firmer, Bitcoin rebounds
Gold stayed pinned inside a technical pennant, slipping about 0.2% to roughly $4,156 as traders awaited a liquidity reset. WTI crude edged up near $58.89, with energy markets stable in the absence of fresh supply headlines. Bitcoin added about 1% to trade around $91,127, recovering ground after last week’s wobble.
What’s next
Focus turns to Friday’s shortened U.S. session and whether month-end flows or any surprise headlines can jolt ranges. Central bank speak and upcoming European data will guide rate-path expectations into December.
Questions and answers
Why were European markets so quiet today?
The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday sidelined a large portion of global liquidity, suppressing volumes and volatility across FX, equities, and commodities.
Which currencies outperformed and underperformed?
The New Zealand dollar outperformed while the Swiss franc lagged. Major pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD traded narrowly with the dollar broadly unchanged.
What did the latest ECB communication signal?
ECB meeting accounts emphasized uncertainty as a reason to keep rates unchanged. Latvia’s Kazaks added that it’s not yet appropriate to discuss rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious stance.
What is the Bank of Japan’s current focus?
BOJ’s Noguchi said Japan is progressing toward its inflation target but warned that additional yen weakness could lift underlying inflation, highlighting vigilance over currency-driven price effects.
How did commodities and crypto trade?
Gold consolidated within a pennant pattern, easing slightly, while WTI crude ticked higher. Bitcoin rebounded about 1%, trading near $91,000.
What could break the current FX ranges?
Friday’s reduced U.S. session, month-end flows, and any unexpected policy or geopolitical headlines could revive volatility. Upcoming European data and central bank commentary remain key catalysts into next week.
