Sterling whipsaws after OBR posts UK fiscal forecasts early; NZD rallies as yen lags
Sterling swung sharply and gilts reversed earlier gains after the UK’s fiscal watchdog mistakenly published budget forecasts ahead of schedule, injecting fresh volatility into FX and rates just as risk appetite improved across global stocks.
Key points
- UK OBR accidentally released its fiscal outlook before the budget; GBP/USD chopped between 1.3125–1.3200, gilts swung as 10-year yields round-tripped near 4.49%.
- OBR projections imply Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plan more than doubles fiscal headroom to roughly £22 billion, largely via tax increases alongside higher spending.
- NZD outperformed; NZD/USD up about 0.9% near 0.5673 after the RBNZ signaled its apparent final cut of the cycle. JPY lagged as USD/JPY rose toward 156.50.
- AUD/USD climbed to 0.6495, hovering near 0.6500 option strikes after hotter Australia CPI.
- European stocks advanced; S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. U.S. 10-year yields edged up to about 4.01%.
- Gold gained 0.7% to roughly $4,158; WTI slipped 0.3% to ~$57.79; Bitcoin eased to ~$86,650.
- ECB’s de Guindos said current rates are appropriate; Swiss UBS investor sentiment rebounded to 12.2 from -7.7.
- China unveiled measures to boost consumption; U.S. MBA mortgage applications rose 0.2% week-over-week.
OBR’s early release jolts GBP and gilts
The Office for Budget Responsibility posted its fiscal outlook before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her statement, an unprecedented leak the OBR chalked up to a “technical error.” The document signaled a sizeable increase in fiscal headroom versus March—around £22 billion—driven primarily by tax measures with higher public spending also in the mix. Reeves said there would be no return to austerity.
Traders scrambled to price the mix of tighter revenue and looser spending: GBP/USD initially popped from 1.3155 to 1.3200 before sliding to ~1.3125, then rebounded near 1.3180 as investors reassessed the growth-inflation trade-off and potential gilt supply implications. UK 10-year yields dipped to ~4.43% before retracing to ~4.49%, after touching ~4.54% intraday. Expect elevated intraday volatility as details are parsed and political fallout unfolds.
FX: NZD leads, JPY lags; USD mixed
– NZD: The kiwi led major FX higher, with NZD/USD near 0.5673 (+0.9%). The RBNZ appeared to deliver its final cut of the cycle, a tacit nod to a peak in easing that supports carry and narrows policy divergence with the Fed ahead of 2025. Resistance into 0.5700—near mid-November highs—has capped the move for now.
– AUD: AUD/USD climbed to ~0.6495 (+0.4%) after hotter monthly CPI and option-related gravity around 0.6500. Aussie yields firmed, modestly supporting the currency.
– JPY: USD/JPY advanced ~0.3% to ~156.50 as the yen weakened on ongoing fiscal-stimulus chatter from Tokyo—Prime Minister Takaichi defended the package as not reckless—keeping rate-differential trades intact amid subdued FX volatility.
– GBP: Sterling’s intraday swings reflect fiscal-credibility nerves versus improved growth optics from a bigger spending envelope. The BOE’s reaction function remains critical: extended fiscal support could complicate disinflation if growth impulse proves sticky.
– EUR: ECB’s de Guindos said the current rate level is appropriate, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance. The euro was little changed, with cross-currency moves driven more by broader risk sentiment than policy repricing.
Rates and equities: Risk appetite steadies
Global risk tone was constructive. European equities traded firmer, while S&P 500 futures gained ~0.2%, supported by resilient U.S. data (MBA mortgage applications +0.2% w/w) and a steady Treasury backdrop. The U.S. 10-year yield edged up to ~4.01% (+0.6 bps), while UK gilts were volatile on the fiscal surprise. Switzerland’s UBS investor sentiment surged to 12.2 from -7.7, hinting at improving confidence into year-end.
Commodities and crypto
Gold extended its consolidation breakout attempt, up ~0.7% near $4,158, as dips continued to attract buyers despite firm nominal yields. Oil softened, with WTI down ~0.3% around $57.79 on lingering demand uncertainty versus tentative China support measures. Bitcoin eased ~0.4% to ~$86,650, with crypto risk appetite cooling alongside broader cross-asset digestion.
Macro watch: China, Europe, and policy signals
China announced steps to boost consumption, a marginal positive for commodities and Asia FX if implementation gains traction. In Europe, the ECB’s steady message underpins front-end stability, while UK fiscal dynamics re-enter the macro narrative for sterling and gilts. For traders, the setup into month-end suggests two-way risk: still-solid equity sentiment versus headline-sensitive FX and fixed income—particularly in the UK.
FAQ
Why did GBP and gilts swing so sharply?
The UK OBR mistakenly published its fiscal outlook before the Chancellor’s budget announcement, revealing expanded fiscal headroom (~£22 billion) via tax hikes and higher spending. Markets rapidly repriced growth, inflation, and gilt supply risks, driving a whipsaw in GBP/USD and 10-year gilt yields.
What does the OBR leak imply for Bank of England policy?
A larger fiscal impulse could marginally complicate the final leg of disinflation if growth support persists, potentially keeping BOE policy tighter for longer than markets expect. But the precise impact depends on the timing and composition of measures and the evolution of services inflation.
Why is the New Zealand dollar outperforming?
The RBNZ signaled it likely delivered its final rate cut this cycle. With easing largely priced and carry still attractive, NZD gained as the policy path looks more stable relative to peers, aiding risk-adjusted inflows.
What is pressuring the Japanese yen?
USD/JPY remains supported by wide U.S.-Japan yield differentials and lingering optimism around Japan’s fiscal support. Without a clear shift from the BOJ or a decline in U.S. yields, the yen tends to weaken during risk-on stretches.
How did Australia’s CPI print affect AUD/USD?
A hotter monthly CPI reinforced the view that the RBA must stay vigilant, pushing AUD/USD higher and keeping it pinned near heavy options interest around 0.6500, which can magnetize price action intraday.
What are the near-term levels to watch?
For GBP/USD, 1.3200 remains pivotal resistance with support around 1.3125. USD/JPY watchers have 156.50–157.00 in focus. AUD/USD eyes 0.6500 option strikes. NZD/USD tests resistance near 0.5700. UK 10-year gilts around 4.50% are the fulcrum for fiscal repricing.
How do China’s consumption measures feed into markets?
If delivery is credible and front-loaded, it supports commodities and cyclical FX via a demand boost. For now, the impact is incremental; traders are watching follow-through on implementation and high-frequency spending data.
What did ECB’s de Guindos signal?
He indicated current rates are appropriate, reinforcing a pause. That steadies the euro rates curve and keeps EUR moves more sensitive to global risk tone than to imminent policy shifts.
This report was produced by BPayNews for informational purposes only.
