Headline: Dollar Firms as Fed Minutes Lean Cautious; Markets Brace for Nvidia Earnings
Key Takeaways
With Nvidia set to report after the bell, global markets navigated a flurry of macro headlines that pushed the U.S. dollar higher and nudged Treasury yields up. A delayed labor market calendar and cautious Federal Reserve minutes set the tone, while oil slid on geopolitical headlines and investors parsed sharp moves across forex and crypto.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the October jobs report will not be published and the November release is pushed to December 16—after the next FOMC meeting. That lack of timely employment data supported the dollar as traders reassessed the odds of near-term rate cuts. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting signaled a cautious bias: many policymakers judged it appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged for the rest of the year, while leaving the door open to gradual easing if the economy evolves as expected. Participants flagged downside risks to employment, lingering inflation pressures—including potential tariff effects on core goods in 2025–26—and stretched asset valuations. The committee agreed to end quantitative tightening on December 1 and delivered a 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00% with dissents on both sides. Elsewhere, the U.S. August trade deficit narrowed to $59.6 billion with limited market impact. Mortgage applications fell 5.2% week over week, and a 20‑year Treasury auction cleared at 4.706%, slightly above when‑issued levels. Yields edged higher into the close, with the 10‑year at 4.127%.
Equities were modestly higher into the Nvidia print, with the Dow up 0.10%, the S&P 500 up 0.3%, and the Nasdaq up 0.59%, as investors weighed AI-chip demand and intensifying competition from hyperscalers. In FX, the dollar advanced: EUR/USD broke lower toward 1.1520, GBP/USD slipped after in‑line UK CPI, and USD/JPY pushed above 157. Oil fell 2.27% to $59.29 on renewed speculation around a Ukraine peace framework, despite a larger‑than‑expected 3.426 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories. Gold added $8 to $4,074, while Bitcoin dropped 3.72% to $89,453.
Key Points: – BLS cancels the October jobs report and delays November to December 16, lifting the U.S. dollar. – FOMC minutes point to keeping rates unchanged near term, ending QT on December 1, and monitoring downside jobs risks and sticky inflation. – U.S. August trade deficit narrowed to $59.6B; MBA mortgage applications fell 5.2% w/w. – Treasury yields ticked higher; 20‑year auction cleared at 4.706% slightly above WI levels. – Stocks rose ahead of Nvidia earnings; dollar strengthened with EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower, USD/JPY higher. – Oil slid on Ukraine peace talk headlines despite a larger‑than‑expected EIA crude draw; gold up, Bitcoin lower.
