Headline: Markets Update: Euro Outlook Firms, Fed Eases, USD Mixed as Oil Builds and PPI Cools
Key Takeaways
Global markets opened the week with a cross‑current of signals for currencies, commodities, and policy watchers. A major fund manager survey points to a steadier euro over the longer term, while the US dollar traded mixed as investors looked ahead to key tech earnings. Central bank and fiscal developments added to the backdrop, with a fresh US rate cut, soft producer price data in New Zealand, and potential UK measures aimed at small businesses.
Bank of America’s November global fund manager survey suggests most institutions expect the euro to end 2026 stronger, but still trading within a familiar range—supporting a view of gradual normalization in foreign exchange markets. In the Americas session, the US dollar was mixed against major peers, with attention turning to upcoming earnings from a leading US chipmaker and broader risk sentiment. Meanwhile, a private survey signaled a larger‑than‑expected build in crude inventories, adding a modest headwind to oil prices and inflation expectations.
Policy headlines continued to shape the macro narrative. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to support hiring, though the impact may be tempered by structural factors such as AI adoption and a tightening labor supply—leaving inflation risks in focus. In New Zealand, Q3 producer prices rose less than forecast (outputs +0.6%, inputs +0.2%), reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will maintain an easing bias. In the UK, reports indicate the Chancellor is weighing steps to shield small businesses and the self‑employed from tax increases, balancing growth priorities with fiscal discipline. In the US, debate over centralized AI investment oversight versus state-level rules is set to remain a policy flashpoint for technology and capital flows.
Key Points: – Survey shows investors expect a modestly stronger euro by end‑2026, still within a broad trading range. – US dollar trades mixed as markets eye major tech earnings and shifting risk appetite. – Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps; benefits may be muted by AI dynamics and a shrinking workforce. – Private data points to a larger crude oil inventory build, pressuring oil prices. – New Zealand Q3 PPI undershoots forecasts, supporting the RBNZ’s easing trajectory. – UK government reportedly assessing measures to protect small businesses from tax increases.
