Headline: Nasdaq steadies as traders balance Fed cut odds and jobs data
U.S. equities are marking time as the market debates whether the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate reduction in December. With odds slipping just under 50%, investors are looking to incoming labor and inflation readings to determine the policy path. A split within the FOMC underscores the data dependency, making the early-December nonfarm payrolls report a likely swing factor just days before the next decision.
On the technical front, the Nasdaq continues to respect a major uptrend line on the daily chart, where dip-buyers have repeatedly defended the move with stops below recent lows. A clean break beneath that trend could expose downside toward 24,157, while holding the line keeps the door open to fresh all-time highs. Intraday, a minor support zone sits near 25,000; buyers maintaining that area could target a rebound toward 25,850. A failure there would likely invite a retest of the trendline and heighten breakout risk to the downside.
Event risk is front-loaded, with ADP employment data, FOMC meeting minutes, weekly jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, and U.S. flash PMIs all on deck. Strong labor prints would favor a hawkish repricing and pressure equities, while softer outcomes would reinforce rate-cut expectations and support risk sentiment. Expect volatility around these releases as rate expectations and Nasdaq momentum adjust in real time.
Key Points: – Market-implied odds for a December Fed rate cut are now below 50%, keeping stocks in a holding pattern. – FOMC remains divided; upcoming labor and inflation data will likely determine the policy call. – Nasdaq daily trendline remains pivotal; a break lower points to 24,157, while support holds keep new highs in play. – Near-term levels: support at 25,000 and resistance near 25,850 on the Nasdaq. – This week’s catalysts: ADP employment, FOMC minutes, weekly jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, and U.S. flash PMIs. – Strong data risks a hawkish repricing; softer readings would bolster rate-cut bets and lift equities.
