Headline: Crypto Stumbles, Macro Risks Rise as Equities Diverge
Introduction: Digital assets and global markets faced a choppy session, with crypto under pressure, mixed signals from equities, and fresh macro and trade risks on the horizon. Investors are recalibrating around technical levels, policy uncertainty, and shifting growth expectations.
Crypto and digital assets: Bitcoin slid roughly 10% and fell below its 50-week simple moving average, with prior support now acting as resistance near $102,000. The weakness echoed in crypto-linked equities, including MicroStrategy, as risk appetite cooled. XRP declined about 4.3% despite an ETF launch, stabilizing around $2.22, though traders are watching the $2 area as a potential inflection point. Regulatory overhang intensified as reports pointed to roughly $28 billion in illicit flows tied to crypto exchanges, underscoring rising compliance and enforcement risk.
Equities and corporate performance: In equities, Jabil extended its strong year-to-date rally to approximately 56%, outperforming the S&P 500 even after a post-earnings pullback. Analyst commentary still points to potential upside of around 23.5%, highlighting steady execution and resilient demand across key end markets.
Macro, commodities, and trade: Macro data turned softer as Japan’s economy contracted at a 1.8% annualized pace, with exports down 4.5% amid tariff headwinds—another reminder of how trade frictions can pressure global growth. In commodities, gold eased 0.8% as the probability of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished and physical buying cooled, though the metal remains up roughly 55% year to date. Trade policy also grabbed attention with talk of a 107% U.S. tariff on Italian pasta, a move that could lift consumer prices and ripple through commodity supply chains.
Key Points: – Bitcoin fell below its 50-week SMA, with key resistance now near $102,000. – XRP dropped 4.3% despite an ETF debut, holding around $2.22 with risk under $2. – Jabil shares are up about 56% YTD; analysts still see approximately 23.5% upside. – Japan’s GDP shrank 1.8% annualized as exports slid 4.5% on tariff pressures. – Gold dipped 0.8% on reduced Fed cut odds but remains up roughly 55% YTD. – Reports of about $28B in illicit crypto flows heighten regulatory and compliance risks.
