Headline: China’s Export Strength Sets Stage for 5% Growth in 2026, Economists Say
Introduction: China’s export engine is proving more resilient than expected, positioning the world’s second-largest economy to sustain around 5% GDP growth in 2026. According to economists, stronger external demand is offsetting domestic softness, narrowing the need for heavy-handed stimulus even as deflation risks linger.
This year, shipments abroad have climbed roughly 5% through October, only a touch below last year’s 6% gain—evidence that China’s manufacturing competitiveness remains intact despite U.S. tariffs introduced under the Trump administration. Looking ahead, economists forecast export growth of about 6% next year, far above market expectations closer to 1%. If global activity continues to firm, China’s trade performance could once again surpass consensus and anchor broader economic momentum.
A more durable export cycle would help stabilize China’s growth outlook and carry meaningful spillovers for global supply chains, Asian currencies, and commodity markets. At the same time, persistent deflation underscores an uneven recovery at home, keeping attention on Beijing’s policy stance. Stronger external demand could reduce pressure for aggressive domestic stimulus, but policymakers are likely to remain cautious as they balance growth support with financial stability.
Key Points: – China could maintain around 5% GDP growth in 2026, supported by robust exports. – Exports are up about 5% year-to-date through October, just below last year’s 6% increase. – Economists project roughly 6% export growth next year, versus market consensus near 1%. – Global demand is expected to strengthen, potentially boosting China’s trade outperformance. – A firmer export cycle would impact supply chains, Asian FX, and commodity demand. – Ongoing deflation highlights an uneven recovery and keeps policy decisions in focus.
