Technological deflation driven by artificial intelligence could help push Bitcoin above $10 million within a decade by pressuring central banks to keep expanding the money supply, according to a report from Strive strategist Joe Burnett.
Burnett, Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, said in a report published Monday that faster productivity gains from AI will push down prices across goods and services, squeezing margins and prompting policymakers to respond with sustained monetary expansion. His “base case” calls for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, he wrote.
”My base case for Q1 2036 is $11 million per Bitcoin.”
The forecast rests on a set of aggressive assumptions, including that Bitcoin would grow to about 12% of the value of global financial assets and that global wealth would compound at 7% annually through 2036. With Bitcoin currently accounting for about 0.2% of all financial assets, this would involve an over 176-fold increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization during the next decade to hit $230 trillion.
The forecast would imply that Bitcoin becomes the dominant global reserve asset along with structurally loose monetary policy over the next decade, Nic Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst of educational platform Coin Bureau, told Cointelegraph.
”The forecast implies Bitcoin would become around 10 times as large as the current US M2 money supply, nearly four times as large as the US equity market today, and nearly double current global GDP.”
The prediction would also imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 53% per annum, which is not unprecedented considering Bitcoin’s average 60% CAGR between 2015 and 2024, but a slowdown may be expected due to its larger market capitalization, added Puckrin.
AI deflation engine to lead to structural monetary expansion
Burnett’s thesis centers on what he described as an “AI deflation engine,” arguing that AI-driven automation and cost reductions could create persistent deflationary pressure.
In a debt-based fiat system, sustained deflation can strain credit markets because wages and asset prices may fall while debt obligations remain fixed in nominal terms, he wrote, potentially pushing central banks and fiscal authorities to add liquidity to avoid a deflationary spiral.
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”Under a debt-based fiat framework, persistent deflation destabilizes credit markets because wages and asset prices decline while mortgages, corporate loans, and sovereign debt remain fixed in nominal terms,” Burnett said.
”As AI drives real-economy deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral.”
Burnett said this will lead to a persistent increase in money relative to the supply of scarce assets.
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Emergence of digital credit set to bolster Bitcoin demand
The report also points to what Burnett calls the emergence of “digital credit” models promoted by companies including Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Digital credit provides US dollar income to investors through publicly traded securities backed by large Bitcoin balance sheets issued by treasury firms as a means to raise capital to acquire more Bitcoin.
Burnett foresees digital credit products creating a ”reflexive loop” between global yield demand and Bitcoin accumulation, marking the ”early stage of a credit system built on verifiably scarce money.”
Still, the $11 million forecast stands well above most bullish scenarios that use shorter time horizons. For instance,ARK Invest predicted a 2030 Bitcoin price target of $1.5 million in the company’s bull case and a $300,000 price target in the bear case, Cointelegraph reported in November 2025.
Context
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Key confirmation signals include sustained spot demand, funding stability, and whether price can hold reclaimed levels after headline-driven volatility.
If momentum weakens, traders will likely prioritize downside liquidity zones and risk-control positioning before adding new directional exposure.
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