Dollar-Rupee regains 100-hour average as bulls eye 90.57; sellers need a break below 89.99
USD/INR snapped back above its 100-hour moving average after a failed push toward key Fibonacci support, shifting near-term momentum back to buyers as traders target last week’s high and an extension level above 90.50.
Technical picture: buyers back in control above the 100-hour MA
The pair’s pullback stalled before reaching the 38.2% retracement of the advance from the mid-November low, allowing dip buyers to reassert control. Price is now holding consistently above the 100-hour moving average near 89.99, with intraday dips finding support at that line over the past two sessions.
– A sustained hold above 89.99 keeps the short-term bias constructive.
– A close back below the 100-hour MA is needed to give sellers traction and reset downside momentum.
Immediate supports to watch
– 89.99: 100-hour moving average (nearby pivot)
– 89.79: initial downside waypoint if 89.99 breaks
– Rising 200-hour moving average and 38.2% retracement near 89.656: layered support—both levels likely need to give way to hand control back to bears
Topside hurdles
– 90.4370: last week’s high; a break would validate bullish continuation
– 90.5700: 161.8% Fibonacci extension, a key target for trend followers
Market context
Near-term USD/INR dynamics remain tightly linked to broader dollar tone, U.S. yield swings, and risk appetite. With spot holding above short-term averages, momentum accounts are skewed to buy dips, while discretionary traders are watching for a break above last week’s high to unlock fresh upside. Rupee-watchers will keep an eye on oil price moves and potential RBI presence—both can modulate INR volatility and intraday liquidity. Overall FX volatility remains subdued, but stops are likely clustered around 89.99/89.79 on the downside and 90.44/90.57 on the topside, potentially amplifying any break.
Key Points
- USD/INR reclaimed the 100-hour MA (~89.99), with dips repeatedly supported.
- Sellers need a decisive move below 89.99 to target 89.79, the 200-hour MA, and the 38.2% retracement at 89.656.
- Upside focus sits on 90.4370 (last week’s high) and the 161.8% extension at 90.5700.
- Macro drivers: dollar tone, U.S. yields, oil prices, and potential RBI intervention risk.
- Bias: constructive while above the 100-hour MA; momentum builds on a break of 90.44/90.57.
Trading outlook
For now, the path of least resistance is higher while price holds above the 100-hour average. Momentum traders may look for continuation through 90.44 toward 90.57, while mean-reversion sellers will likely wait for a clean break back below 89.99 to re-engage. Liquidity pockets around the cited levels could fuel faster moves once triggered.
FAQ
What level would invalidate the current bullish bias?
A decisive break and close below the 100-hour MA near 89.99 would undermine the immediate bullish setup and expose 89.79, then the 200-hour MA and 38.2% retracement at 89.656.
What are the next upside targets for USD/INR?
The key topside markers are 90.4370 (last week’s high) followed by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 90.5700.
Why is the 100-hour moving average important here?
It has acted as a dynamic pivot; repeated defenses of the 100-hour MA signal buyers’ control of short-term momentum.
What macro factors could shift USD/INR near term?
Moves in U.S. Treasury yields, swings in broad dollar strength, oil price volatility affecting India’s import bill, and potential RBI activity can all influence intraday direction and volatility.
Is volatility likely to rise?
Volatility is modest, but stops clustered around 89.99/89.79 and 90.44/90.57 could amplify price action if those levels break. Traders should adjust risk accordingly, notes BPayNews.
