Headline: USD/CAD Slips as Canada Jobs Beat; Markets Lean Toward Fed Cut
Introduction: The US dollar retreated across major currency pairs last week despite resilient US data. In USD/CAD, a stronger Canadian employment print and shifting rate expectations pushed the pair lower, bringing key technical levels into focus ahead of upcoming US releases.
The macro backdrop has tilted modestly against the greenback. Even with firm US ADP and ISM Services readings, rates markets now imply roughly a two‑thirds chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, suggesting the prior dollar rally may be tiring. The decisive inputs will be the next US nonfarm payrolls and inflation reports, due before the upcoming FOMC meeting. North of the border, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 bps at its last meeting to the bottom of its estimated neutral range (2.25%–3.25%) and signaled a likely pause, while preserving flexibility. A robust Canadian jobs report saw unemployment fall to 6.9% from 7.1%, trimming expectations of further BoC easing, with markets now pricing only about a one‑in‑three chance of another cut by the end of 2026.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD broke below 1.4080 after the employment surprise, opening scope toward trend support near 1.3950 on the daily chart. On the 4‑hour view, price sits mid‑range, leaving cleaner levels at a potential retest of 1.4080 or a move toward the rising trendline. A sustained recovery above 1.4080 would re‑open the path toward cycle highs, while a decisive break of trend support would expose lower territory. Intraday, a short‑term counter‑trendline has been acting as support; a downside break could accelerate momentum toward the primary trendline, while holding that line keeps rebound attempts in play.
The near‑term calendar is relatively light, with the ADP employment update next on the docket before attention turns to US nonfarm payrolls and CPI. In the absence of fresh catalysts, evolving rate expectations and broader risk sentiment are likely to steer flows in the US dollar and Canadian dollar within the forex market.
Key Points: – USD weakened broadly despite firm US ADP and ISM Services data – Markets price roughly a two‑thirds chance of a Fed rate cut in December – Bank of Canada cut 25 bps to the bottom of its 2.25%–3.25% neutral range and signaled a likely pause – Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1%, reducing odds of further BoC easing – USD/CAD broke below 1.4080; daily trend support sits near 1.3950 – Light data calendar ahead, with ADP next and US NFP/CPI set to guide the next move
