USD/CAD slides as Canadian jobs surprise knocks pair below 100- and 200-day averages
A stronger-than-expected Canadian labor print sparked a decisive selloff in USD/CAD, driving the pair down roughly 0.75% on the day and forcing a clean break beneath the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Bears now hold the initiative as traders refocus on key Fibonacci supports.
Momentum shifts to the loonie after data surprise
The Canadian dollar strengthened broadly after the jobs beat, with traders leaning into the narrative that firmer domestic data reduces the urgency for near-term Bank of Canada easing. The move coincided with a softer U.S. dollar tone and steadier risk appetite, helping extend USD/CAD’s post-data slide.
Technical breakdown: bears seize control
USD/CAD fell through the 100-day moving average at 1.3900 and then the 200-day moving average at 1.3889, converting former support into risk-defining resistance. As long as price holds below these marks, the path of least resistance stays lower. A sustained recovery back above 1.3889–1.3900 would blunt the bearish structure and signal momentum loss.
Levels to watch
– First downside focus: the 50% retracement of the mid-June to November rally at 1.3839. This midpoint often acts as a pause point for profit-taking.
– A decisive break beneath 1.3839 exposes the 61.8% retracement at 1.3768, a level that has historically attracted two-way interest and could slow the move—or accelerate it if momentum remains strong.
At a glance
- USD/CAD down about 0.75% as a stronger Canadian jobs report boosts the loonie.
- Pair breaks below the 100-DMA (1.3900) and 200-DMA (1.3889), shifting trend bias bearish.
- Immediate support sits at the 1.3839 50% retracement; next at 1.3768 (61.8%).
- Bearish view holds while price stays under 1.3889–1.3900; a close back above would weaken downside momentum.
- Macro backdrop: stronger domestic data trims BoC easing bets, while broader risk tone and oil sensitivity remain relevant for CAD.
Broader market context
FX traders are weighing a firmer Canadian growth pulse against a mixed global macro picture. The jobs surprise nudged local rates expectations away from aggressive near-term cuts, giving CAD an added tailwind. Across majors, liquidity conditions around the data release amplified intraday volatility, while cross-asset moves—from North American yields to crude oil—continue to influence CAD’s trajectory. For now, the technical break leaves bears in charge unless USD/CAD can recapture the 100- and 200-day averages, BPayNews analysis shows.
FAQ
What pushed USD/CAD lower today?
A stronger-than-expected Canadian employment report triggered fresh CAD buying and USD/CAD selling, extending losses as technical levels gave way.
Why are the 100- and 200-day moving averages important here?
They serve as widely watched trend gauges. USD/CAD’s drop below the 100-DMA (1.3900) and 200-DMA (1.3889) flipped market bias bearish and turned those areas into resistance.
What are the next key support levels?
The 50% retracement of the mid-June to November advance at 1.3839 is first support. A break there exposes the 61.8% retracement at 1.3768.
What would invalidate the bearish setup?
A sustained recovery back above 1.3889–1.3900 would undermine the downside structure and suggest the selloff is losing momentum.
How do BoC policy and oil prices factor into CAD?
Stronger Canadian data can reduce expectations for near-term BoC rate cuts, supporting CAD. Meanwhile, oil—Canada’s key export—often influences the currency; firmer crude tends to be CAD-positive, while weaker oil can weigh on it.
