USD/JPY Stalls Below 155 as Dollar Softens; Markets Await CPI and NFP
The US dollar slipped broadly last week even as US ADP employment and ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside, hinting at a near‑term top in the greenback. With rate‑cut odds creeping higher, traders are recalibrating for upcoming data that could set the tone into the next FOMC decision.
Market pricing now implies roughly two‑thirds odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but the path will hinge on the next US CPI inflation print and nonfarm payrolls. On the yen side, the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, with two board members again dissenting in favor of a hike. Governor Ueda’s emphasis on spring wage negotiations signals patience, raising the likelihood that any further tightening could be pushed into early 2026. Japanese officials also drew a verbal line near 155.00 in USD/JPY, underscoring that interventions may resurface if yen weakness accelerates, though such comments typically deliver only short‑term pullbacks when broader drivers favor dollar strength.
Technically, USD/JPY remains rangebound beneath 155.00 after briefly dipping below 153.27 before bouncing. On higher timeframes, the pair is consolidating above the 153.00 area; a recent break of an upward trendline proved to be a false move, keeping the broader range intact. Intraday, a descending trendline now caps rallies, with sellers fading tests of that resistance and eyeing a move back toward 153.00–153.30. A clean breakout above the intraday trendline and 155.00 would reopen topside momentum, while a sustained break below 153.00 would shift focus to fresh downside targets. This week’s calendar is relatively light, making positioning sensitive to any surprise from US employment indicators ahead of CPI and NFP.
Key Points – US dollar softened despite strong ADP and ISM Services PMI, signaling a possible short‑term top. – Futures markets price about a 63% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, pending CPI and NFP. – Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged; focus on wage negotiations suggests any hike could slip into early 2026. – Japanese officials signaled discomfort near 155.00 in USD/JPY, hinting at potential intervention if yen weakness persists. – USD/JPY is consolidating between 153.00 and 155.00; intraday resistance is defined by a descending trendline. – Light data week leaves the pair sensitive to US jobs updates before the key inflation and payrolls releases.
