Headline: USD/JPY Stalls Below 155 as Fed Debate and BoJ Caution Shape Trade
The US dollar’s slide continues to puzzle markets, even as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have eased. With the FOMC decision approaching, traders are zeroing in on incoming US data while the Japanese yen stays under pressure after the Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged and signaled patience on future hikes.
Market focus remains firmly on the Fed. Pricing now implies roughly even odds of a December cut, placing added weight on the upcoming jobs data. A softer September nonfarm payrolls print may be discounted as backward-looking, but a strong surprise could suggest conditions were already improving before recent easing steps. With the November payrolls report likely to land just ahead of the December meeting—and no timely November CPI—labor data may ultimately tip the balance. On the yen side, Governor Ueda’s emphasis on spring wage negotiations points to a later timeline for the next rate hike, potentially into early 2026. Meanwhile, Japanese officials have stepped up verbal intervention around the 155.00 level, signaling a line in the sand even if such comments typically trigger only brief pullbacks.
Technically, USD/JPY tested above 154.80 but was rejected near 155.00, keeping a familiar ceiling intact. Sellers are likely to fade rallies in the 154.80–155.00 area with stops above the recent highs, targeting a move toward 151.00 support. A decisive break higher would re-energize bullish momentum toward the 158.00 region. On lower timeframes, an ascending trendline continues to define the uptrend; pullbacks into that support may attract buyers with tight risk, while a sustained break beneath it would encourage bearish follow-through toward 151.00. Intraday, sellers tend to lean against 154.80 as buyers await better risk-reward near trendline support.
Key Points: – USD/JPY capped below 155.00 despite fading odds of a December Fed rate cut – Markets see roughly 50/50 probability for a December move, putting US jobs data in focus – September NFP may be discounted unless strong; November NFP likely decisive before the FOMC – BoJ kept rates unchanged; wage negotiations remain key guideposts for the next hike, potentially into 2026 – Japan’s verbal intervention highlights 155.00 as a watch level for yen officials – Technicals: resistance at 154.80–155.00, support near 151.00; break above targets 158.00, trendline supports buyers on pullbacks
