USD/CAD turns lower after 100-hour MA rejection; eyes on 1.3968–1.3975 support zone
USD/CAD gave up early gains after running into the falling 100-hour moving average near 1.4010, sliding back into a tightly watched support pocket at 1.3968–1.3975. The next break from this “decision zone” is likely to set the intraday tone for FX risk.
Market snapshot
- Price faded from the 100-hour MA (around 1.4010) and rotated lower.
- Immediate support sits at the 1.3968–1.3975 swing area.
- 38.2% retracement resistance is near 1.3985; a reclaim would ease downside pressure.
- A clean break below 1.3968–1.3975 would reinforce bearish bias, exposing the recent 50% midpoint that halted last week’s drop.
- Focus shifts back to the 100-hour MA if buyers reclaim 1.3985 and sustain momentum.
Price action and levels
USD/CAD extended Monday’s upside into Asia and early Europe before sellers reappeared at the declining 100-hour moving average, capping the push toward 1.4010. The retreat has pulled the pair to a defined swing area at 1.3968–1.3975, where dip buyers have previously defended. The pair last dealt near 1.3983 intraday.
Above, initial resistance is the 38.2% retracement at 1.3985. A sustained move through that threshold would refocus attention on the 100-hour MA, which is trending lower and acting as dynamic resistance. Below, a decisive break under 1.3968–1.3975 would open room toward the 50% retracement area that arrested Friday’s decline.
Why this matters for FX
Intraday momentum in USD/CAD often hinges on a few well-defined technical bands, particularly when broader market catalysts are mixed. The Canadian dollar’s correlation to crude and sensitivity to North American yield differentials remain in play, but with the pair pinned between a falling 100-hour MA and firm swing support, order flow around these levels is likely to dominate near-term direction. A topside reclaim would suggest stabilization in USD momentum; a breakdown would flag renewed CAD strength.
Trading scenarios to watch
- Bullish recovery: Hold above 1.3968–1.3975, reclaim 1.3985 (38.2%), then probe the falling 100-hour MA near 1.4010. A close above the MA would strengthen upside conviction.
- Bearish continuation: Clear and hold below 1.3968. Momentum likely builds toward the recent 50% midpoint, with risk of extension if liquidity thins.
- Range risk: Failure to break either band could keep price action choppy within a 1.3968–1.4010 corridor as volatility compresses.
Macro context
For macro-driven traders, the backdrop remains a push-and-pull between U.S. yields, risk appetite, and oil’s path—key variables for USD/CAD. Any shift in Bank of Canada or Federal Reserve rate expectations can quickly reprice the pair via front-end yields. Meanwhile, oil’s tone influences CAD via terms-of-trade; firmer crude typically lends support to the loonie, while softer energy can cushion USD/CAD on dips. With data risk and central bank commentary in focus, liquidity pockets around the noted technical levels may amplify intraday moves.
FAQ
What are the key USD/CAD levels to watch today?
Support is concentrated at 1.3968–1.3975. Resistance sits at 1.3985 (38.2% retracement) and the falling 100-hour moving average near 1.4010.
What would confirm a bearish continuation?
A decisive break and hold below 1.3968–1.3975 would strengthen the downside bias and open the path toward the recent 50% midpoint that checked Friday’s decline.
What signals a bullish reversal intraday?
Holding the swing zone and reclaiming 1.3985 would be the first step. A subsequent break above the 100-hour MA would add confidence to a topside move.
How do oil prices affect USD/CAD?
Canada’s terms-of-trade link the loonie to crude. Rising oil typically supports CAD and can pressure USD/CAD lower; falling oil often does the opposite.
Why does the 100-hour moving average matter?
It’s a widely watched measure of short-term trend and momentum. When price trades below a falling 100-hour MA, rallies often struggle at that dynamic resistance until momentum shifts.
This analysis was prepared by BPayNews to support traders with timely, level-driven insights.
