Headline: Markets Weigh Mixed U.S. Data as AI Stocks Rally and Housing Shows a Tentative Lift
U.S. markets digested a split set of economic signals, with a modest payroll gain alongside a higher unemployment rate, while housing activity ticked up as mortgage costs eased. Equity sentiment improved on strong tech earnings, but interest-rate expectations and commodity moves kept the outlook nuanced.
The latest jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000 even as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. That combination left traders recalibrating Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, with rate cut odds swinging and settling near a 43% probability. The data add to a broader narrative of slowing but resilient growth, keeping the path of monetary policy finely balanced.
Housing offered a cautious positive. Existing home sales climbed 1.2% in October as average mortgage rates eased toward 6.17%, helping coax buyers back into the market. Even so, activity remains on track for a historically subdued year, and tighter inventories could limit momentum if supply fails to improve. Lower rates may be a crucial tailwind for demand as affordability pressures persist.
Risk assets leaned higher, led by technology. Nvidia advanced about 4% on earnings, helping fuel an AI-led rally that lifted the S&P 500 by roughly 1.8% and the Nasdaq by 2.5%. In commodities, soybean futures firmed with August 2026 up $1.00 to $209.25; corn was broadly higher though November 2025 slipped $1.00; and wheat traded mixed. Investors remain focused on whether growth cools without reigniting inflation, as stagflation risks continue to be monitored.
Key Points – U.S. payrolls rose by 119,000 while unemployment increased to 4.4%, sending mixed economic signals. – Fed rate cut probabilities fluctuated, settling near a 43% chance amid uncertain policy outlook. – Existing home sales gained 1.2% in October as mortgage rates eased to around 6.17%. – Housing remains historically soft overall, with lower supply and affordability constraints in focus. – Nvidia’s earnings lifted AI shares; S&P 500 up ~1.8% and Nasdaq up ~2.5%. – Soybean futures advanced; corn mostly higher with a dip in Nov ’25; wheat prices were mixed.
