Futures climb on Fed-cut bets as Alphabet nears $4T; Nvidia slips, Argentina peso steadies after mega auction
US equity futures advanced as traders leaned into Federal Reserve rate-cut hopes, with mega-cap tech leadership sharpening the move. Alphabet’s surge toward a $4 trillion market value buoyed Nasdaq sentiment, while Nvidia eased on deal-risk chatter. In emerging markets, Argentina’s peso held steady after a massive Treasury funding operation spotlighted fragile reserves.
Market snapshot
US stock futures rose in early trade, paced by gains in tech after Alphabet extended its AI-fueled rally. Softer hiring momentum and mounting layoff headlines kept Fed pivot bets in focus, anchoring expectations for easier policy into year-end. The tone in rates and FX was cautiously risk-on as investors weighed slower growth against a still-resilient earnings backdrop.
Key points
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained as rate-cut probabilities firmed; traders eye data to validate a dovish Fed path.
- Alphabet approached a $4 trillion valuation on AI-chip momentum and reports of high-profile investor interest; Nvidia fell roughly 2% on deal-risk concerns.
- Keysight jumped about 10% on earnings; Applied Materials rose roughly 5% on an upgrade.
- Mixed labor signals: a 119,000 payroll gain contrasts with a rise in unemployment to 4.4%; layoff headlines widen across tech, autos, consumer and industrials.
- Argentina’s Treasury sold 14.7 trillion pesos amid liquidity anxieties; the peso held near ARS 1,447 per USD as reserves remain strained and targets were missed.
- Retail divergence persists: Abercrombie & Fitch up about 40% on momentum, Walmart steady, Target lagging.
Tech leadership tightens as AI trade tilts toward Alphabet
Alphabet’s rally—powered by progress in AI silicon and incremental signs of institutional demand—helped lift Nasdaq futures and broader risk appetite. The move reinforces a rotation within the AI complex: while Nvidia remains the dominant infrastructure winner, investors appeared to calibrate exposure toward platform names with broader monetization runways.
Nvidia eased roughly 2% on headlines suggesting potential risk around a key customer relationship, nudging traders to reassess concentration risk across AI supply chains. With positioning extended and implied volatility elevated around event risk, the near-term tech tape may hinge on incremental guidance and capex updates from hyperscalers.
Labor uncertainty bolsters Fed-pivot bets
A 119,000 payroll increase alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% points to a labor market losing some heat. Concurrently, layoff announcements continue to build across sectors—HP, Verizon, GM, Paramount, Amazon, UPS, Target, Nestlé, Lufthansa, Novo Nordisk, ConocoPhillips, Intel, Microsoft and P&G among those trimming headcount—adding to the perception that demand is normalizing. For rates and FX, a cooler jobs pulse typically pressures yields and the dollar as markets price a lower terminal rate and earlier cuts, improving risk appetite for equities and higher-beta currencies.
Argentina stabilizes the peso after jumbo auction
Argentina’s Treasury placed approximately 14.7 trillion pesos amid tightening liquidity conditions, a result that steadied the official peso around ARS 1,447 per USD. The calm masks deeper vulnerabilities: the central bank’s reserve position remains precarious, and missed targets keep policy credibility in question. For EM FX, Argentina’s funding progress offers a short-term anchor, but sustainability depends on rebuilding reserves, disinflation traction, and credible fiscal consolidation.
Sector movers to watch
– Semiconductors: Applied Materials gained on a broker upgrade; Nvidia slipped as traders reassessed customer exposure.
– Software/AI: Palantir, BigBear.ai and Nebu on watch lists as capital rotates across the AI value chain.
– Retail: Abercrombie & Fitch outperformed, Walmart remained a defensive winner, while Target lagged on margin concerns.
– Industrials/Autos/Food: Over 11,900 layoffs were logged across auto, food processing, logistics and manufacturing, signaling late-cycle cost control.
What it means for FX and rates
– A softer US labor impulse typically supports Fed easing expectations, which can weigh on US Treasury yields and the dollar, while aiding risk assets and EM FX.
– If AI-led tech strength persists, US equities could decouple from macro softness, but a sharp repricing in growth expectations would reassert dollar strength and defensive flows.
– In EM, Argentina’s near-term peso stability is constructive, yet reserve rebuilding remains the swing factor for sustained FX confidence.
Trading outlook
Fed-sensitive assets remain in charge. A continuation of cooling labor data should reinforce rate-cut pricing and underpin equities, particularly mega-cap tech with tangible AI earnings leverage. Watch real yields and the dollar for confirmation: durable downside in both would validate a broader risk-on extension. For EM, Argentina’s follow-through on reserves and fiscal progress is key to maintaining peso stability and re-opening local funding channels.
FAQ
What is moving US stock futures today?
Futures are higher on rising Fed rate-cut bets and strength in mega-cap tech, led by Alphabet’s AI-driven rally. Softer labor signals and broad layoff headlines are reinforcing a dovish policy path.
How might Fed rate-cut expectations affect the US dollar?
Easier policy expectations typically pressure the dollar as US yields fall, supporting risk assets and some EM currencies. A stronger pivot narrative could extend that trend if incoming data stay soft.
Why is Alphabet approaching a $4 trillion valuation?
Investors are rewarding progress in AI chips and cloud monetization, alongside reports of high-profile institutional interest. These catalysts boost confidence in Alphabet’s long-term cash-flow durability.
Why are Nvidia shares under pressure?
Traders flagged potential risk tied to a large customer relationship, prompting a rethink of concentration risks within AI supply chains and sparking profit-taking after a strong run.
What’s the latest on Argentina’s peso and reserves?
After a 14.7 trillion-peso auction, the official peso held around ARS 1,447 per USD. However, central bank reserves remain strained and missed targets keep policy credibility in focus.
Which sectors are cutting jobs now?
Layoffs span tech, autos, logistics, consumer and industrials, with announcements from HP, Verizon, GM, Paramount, Amazon, UPS, Target, Nestlé, Lufthansa, Novo Nordisk, ConocoPhillips, Intel, Microsoft and P&G.
What should traders watch next?
Monitor labor data revisions, inflation prints and Fed communication for confirmation of the easing path. In equities, watch AI earnings guidance and capex trends; in EM, track Argentina’s reserve trajectory and financing conditions. BPayNews will update as the data land.
