US layoffs fall 53% in November, but year-on-year rise and weak hiring flag a cooler labor market
US employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, a sharp 53% drop from October, but still 24% higher than a year ago—underlining a gradual cooling in labor conditions that could shape FX, rates and risk appetite into year-end.
Layoffs ease month-on-month, but remain elevated versus last year
The November total marks the highest November tally since 2022, suggesting that while the pace of cuts has slowed from October, corporate caution persists. For traders, the mix of softer momentum month-on-month and higher levels year-on-year keeps the focus on the durability of labor demand as growth moderates.
Key Points
- November announced job cuts: 71,321; down 53% from October, up 24% year-on-year.
- 2025 year-to-date job cuts: roughly 1.171 million, up 54% versus the same period in 2024.
- Planned hiring year-to-date: 497,151, the lowest since 2010; down 35% from 2024.
- Signals continued softening in US labor market conditions, with implications for Fed policy expectations.
Hiring plans hit post-GFC lows
Planned hires totaled 497,151 for the year to date, the lowest since 2010 and down 35% from 2024. Weak forward hiring plans often precede slower payroll growth, indicating companies are trimming labor expansion even as they moderate the pace of layoffs.
Macro and market implications
A softer labor backdrop typically tilts expectations toward easier policy, pulling front-end Treasury yields lower and weighing on the US dollar. The dual message—lower month-on-month cuts but higher year-on-year levels and subdued hiring—supports the view that labor demand is normalizing rather than collapsing. In FX, that backdrop may pressure the dollar against low-beta peers and pro-cyclical currencies if rate-cut pricing firms, while volatility could rise into upcoming data prints. For equities, a benign “softening but not breaking” labor picture can be risk-supportive if it anchors policy-easing hopes; however, persistently weak hiring would challenge earnings resilience in 2025. Energy and industrial commodities may see demand expectations marked down if hiring softness spreads beyond white-collar segments.
What traders are watching next
– Upcoming jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls for confirmation of the cooling trend.
– Wage growth and participation metrics as the key inputs to inflation persistence.
– Fed communications and front-end curve dynamics as markets reassess the pace and timing of 2025 rate cuts.
– Cross-asset risk sentiment: whether softer labor data drives a “bad news is good news” rally or stokes growth concerns.
FAQ
What did the latest layoffs data show?
US employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, down 53% from October but up 24% from a year ago. It’s the highest November tally since 2022.
How do year-to-date figures look?
Announced job cuts for 2025 year-to-date total about 1.171 million, up 54% compared with the same period in 2024. Planned hiring year-to-date is 497,151—lowest since 2010 and down 35% from last year.
Why does this matter for FX and rates?
A cooling labor market usually increases odds of Federal Reserve easing, which can push short-dated Treasury yields lower and weigh on the US dollar. The combination of elevated year-on-year layoffs and weak hiring strengthens that narrative.
Is this a recession signal?
Not necessarily. The data point to softening rather than a sharp deterioration. However, persistently weak hiring alongside elevated layoffs would raise growth risks into 2025.
What should traders watch next?
Nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, and wage growth. These will shape the path of rate expectations, FX volatility, and cross-asset positioning. Any surprise in wages or payrolls can quickly shift the US dollar and front-end yields.
This article was produced by BPayNews for market participants seeking timely, data-driven insights.
