Headline: UK Retail Sales Drop 1.1% in October as Shoppers Hold Out for Black Friday
Key Takeaways
UK retail spending pulled back sharply in October, with shoppers seemingly waiting for discount events to kick off. Fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics show a 1.1% month-on-month decline, missing expectations for flat growth and pressuring the British pound as markets digested weaker consumer momentum.
The October fall marks the first monthly decline since May, despite a solid three-month run into autumn: volumes rose 1.1% in the August–October period versus the prior three months. Clothing stores peaked in September, while computer and telecommunications retailers reported gains across September and October. On an annual basis, total retail sales rose 0.2%, well below the 1.5% pace economists expected. Excluding autos and fuel, sales fell 1.0% on the month and were up 1.2% year over year, both undershooting forecasts.
ONS noted notable weakness in supermarkets, clothing, and mail-order retailers in October, with some businesses citing delayed spending ahead of Black Friday promotions. Revisions offered a mixed backdrop: September’s monthly gain was lifted to 0.7% from 0.5%, while the annual rate was cut to 1.0% from 1.5%. For retailers and payments providers, the data point to subdued in-store volumes and a potential shift toward late-month promotions and e-commerce channels as the holiday season ramps up.
Key Points: – Retail sales fell 1.1% m/m in October (vs 0.0% expected); first monthly decline since May. – Annual growth slowed to 0.2% y/y (vs 1.5% expected). – Excluding autos and fuel: -1.0% m/m (vs -0.3% expected) and +1.2% y/y (vs +2.5% expected). – September’s m/m figure revised up to +0.7%; annual rate revised down to +1.0%. – Three-month trend improved: volumes up 1.1% in Aug–Oct vs May–Jul. – GBP weakened on release as data signaled softer consumer spending into peak season.
