Risk appetite cools as Fed cut hopes ebb; Nvidia jumps on China chip headlines, gold and Bitcoin wobble
Stocks drifted lower and the dollar steadied as traders marked down the odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, while Nvidia outperformed on reports of China-bound AI chip sales and renewed tech momentum. Geopolitical scrutiny around ASML and volatile moves in gold and Bitcoin kept cross-asset risk appetite fragile.
At a glance
- U.S. stocks eased as investors pared Fed cut bets; defensive tone lifted the dollar and nudged yields higher.
- Nvidia gained after reports suggested limited approval for H200 AI chip sales to China, even as export controls remain tight.
- ASML said it complies with export laws amid fresh scrutiny of China sales, highlighting geopolitical risk for semis.
- Gold cooled after a powerful 2025 run; scenario analysis points to a wide range of outcomes into 2026.
- Bitcoin swung in the high-$80,000s to low-$90,000s, with traders watching ETF cost basis near ~$83k and resistance around ~$90k.
- M&A chatter lifted Warner on speculation around Paramount, adding a single-stock bid tone to an otherwise cautious tape.
Rates and FX: Fewer cuts priced, dollar steadies
A softer risk tone followed a reassessment of Fed easing prospects, with traders trimming the number of cuts priced for 2025. The shift supported the U.S. dollar against higher-beta and yield-sensitive currencies, while front-end Treasury yields edged up. FX volatility stayed moderate, but price action signaled ongoing sensitivity to incoming data and any hints from Fed speakers about the inflation path and labor-market cooling.
For G10, a firmer dollar typically weighs on the yen and euro, and it can challenge commodity-linked FX if growth concerns creep back. EM FX faces a trade-off between carry and global liquidity: stronger USD and higher real yields tend to tighten financial conditions at the margin.
Equities: Mega-cap tech cushions broader weakness
The major U.S. indices slipped as fading policy-easing hopes met thin conviction. Still, mega-cap AI beneficiaries provided some ballast, especially after chip-sector headlines. M&A speculation helped select media names buck the trend, but breadth remained mixed and factor leadership narrowed—typical of late-cycle rallies where policy uncertainty is rising.
Semiconductors in focus: Nvidia and ASML
Nvidia shares rose after reports suggested the administration allowed certain H200 AI chip shipments to China under export-compliant configurations. While details remain fluid, investors inferred incremental revenue support and a potential cushion to forward estimates, even if shipments are capped.
ASML reiterated compliance with export rules as fresh scrutiny emerged around its China sales and alleged military links in the downstream ecosystem. The headlines added to geopolitical risk premia in the semiconductor supply chain and could periodically weigh on European tech sentiment and the euro via growth-sensitive channels.
Commodities: Gold’s turbocharged run cools
After a blistering rally earlier this year—some estimates placing gains well beyond typical cycles—gold’s momentum cooled as yields and the dollar firmed. Scenario analysis from industry groups points to a wide fan of potential outcomes into 2026: a flat baseline if policy normalizes smoothly, but tail risks could swing prices sharply higher on renewed geopolitical stress—or lower if real yields rise further and ETF demand fades. Positioning remains elevated, leaving the metal sensitive to data surprises and shifts in rate expectations.
Crypto: Bitcoin keeps dancing with macro and AI
Bitcoin’s sharp swings continued, with traders flagging an ETF cohort cost basis near the low-$80,000s and overhead supply around the $90,000 area. Correlation with AI-linked equities remained high, amplifying moves when tech leadership rotates. While some view the risk/reward skew as favorable if the Fed pivots later this year, the larger drawdown risk grows if policy stays tighter-for-longer and liquidity softens.
Asia and Europe: Mixed handover
Asian equities were uneven, with tech pockets lifted by chip headlines even as broader indices reflected caution on U.S. rates. European trade opened guarded, with semiconductor names under scrutiny and defensives outperforming cyclicals. Liquidity conditions remain seasonal, which can exaggerate index-level moves.
What traders are watching next
- U.S. inflation prints, labor-market data, and Fed speak for clarity on the easing path.
- Semiconductor export-control developments and their impact on revenue visibility for U.S. and European chipmakers.
- Gold ETF flows and real-yield momentum as drivers of bullion’s next leg.
- Bitcoin spot ETF net flows and key price zones near ~$83k and ~$90k.
- M&A headlines in media and tech, where bid speculation can override macro for single names.
FAQ
How do fading Fed cut expectations affect the dollar and stocks?
Stronger-for-longer policy tends to support the dollar and lift real yields, pressuring rate-sensitive equities and higher-beta FX. It can also narrow market breadth as investors favor quality balance sheets and cash-flow visibility.
Why did Nvidia rally on China headlines?
Reports of limited, compliant AI chip sales to China imply incremental demand and some insulation for revenue forecasts. Even capped shipments can reassure investors about the durability of AI-driven earnings.
What does scrutiny of ASML’s China sales mean for markets?
Greater export scrutiny increases geopolitical risk premia for the semiconductor supply chain. It can weigh on European tech and, by extension, growth-sensitive European assets, while supporting the dollar on safe-haven flows.
Is gold’s pullback the start of a trend?
Not necessarily. After a strong run, gold is consolidating as yields and the dollar firm. The path from here hinges on real rates, ETF flows, and geopolitical risk—drivers that can swing bullion in either direction.
What levels matter for Bitcoin right now?
Traders cite an ETF cohort cost basis around the low-$80,000s as a support pivot and see overhead supply near $90,000. A sustained break above resistance could re-energize momentum; a loss of support risks a deeper pullback.
How are FX markets positioned into the next data releases?
The dollar retains a modest bias to strength if U.S. data stay firm and Fed cuts are delayed. Surprise downside in inflation or growth would likely weaken the dollar and aid pro-cyclical and high-carry currencies.
This article was produced by BPayNews’ markets desk.
