Headline: Markets Brace for Busy Week: Retail Sales, RBNZ Decision, UK Budget, and Global Inflation Signals
A packed global economic calendar will steer market sentiment this week as central bank decisions, inflation updates, and growth data land across major economies. From the RBNZ’s policy call and the UK Autumn Budget to US retail sales and Canada’s GDP, investors will closely watch signals on interest rates, consumer strength, and fiscal strategy.
The week opens with the Bank of Israel’s update alongside Germany’s Ifo survey and US activity gauges. Tuesday brings China’s PBoC decision to leave loan prime rates unchanged amid slower growth and a less dovish policy tone, plus US consumer confidence and Richmond Fed data. The delayed US September retail sales arrive the same day, with consensus pointing to a 0.4% monthly rise (0.3% ex-autos and retail control). Bank card spending data suggest modest momentum, with a 2% year-over-year increase per household and softer gains among lower-income cohorts. On Wednesday, focus shifts to the RBNZ, where markets largely expect a 25bp cut to 2.25% and a slightly easier policy path into 2026, followed by the UK Autumn Budget as the Chancellor aims to close a GBP 20–35 billion fiscal gap through targeted tax measures while preserving a growth narrative. Australia’s CPI print will help calibrate the RBA’s patient, data-dependent stance amid still-elevated underlying inflation.
Liquidity will thin on Thursday due to US Thanksgiving, but policy signals remain in view. The ECB’s October minutes should reinforce a data-dependent approach after a unanimous pause, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 2.5% as it weighs household debt risks against growth. Tokyo CPI is expected to hover near recent levels after an upside surprise, with temporary energy relief measures likely to temper headline inflation early next year. China’s industrial profits will be monitored for signs of stabilization. Friday rounds out the week with a slew of Europe’s inflation indicators (including flash HICP readings), German labor data, India’s Q3 GDP, and Canada’s Q3 and September GDP, where a soft 0.1% advance is expected; the Bank of Canada remains on hold unless growth or inflation meaningfully diverge from forecasts. The US Chicago PMI closes out the week’s macro pulse.
Key Points – US September retail sales (Tue) expected +0.4% m/m headline, +0.3% ex-autos and control; card data show modest, uneven spending momentum. – RBNZ (Wed) widely seen cutting the OCR by 25bp to 2.25%, with a mildly easier projected rate track into 2026. – PBoC keeps loan prime rates unchanged amid slower growth and a “cross-cyclical” stance; some analysts see scope for rate and RRR cuts in early 2026. – UK Autumn Budget (Wed) aims to plug a GBP 20–35bn hole via targeted taxation, with markets watching fiscal headroom, DMO remit, and growth implications. – ECB minutes (Thu) to reaffirm a data-dependent pause; Bank of Korea likely holds at 2.5% as housing and debt risks cap easing. – Canada GDP (Fri) seen at +0.1% for September and Q3; BoC expected to stay on hold barring significant surprises.
