Cooling US inflation buoys risk assets; dollar eases as S&P 500 flirts with record
Easing price pressures sharpened bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, lifting US equities toward all-time highs and nudging the dollar lower, while sector headlines—from an EU regulatory threat for X to auto policy risks—shaped stock-by-stock moves.
Markets digest softer PCE inflation and recalibrate Fed path
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures report landed on the benign side for markets, with traders homing in on a roughly 2.8% core reading. The print reinforced hopes the Fed can begin easing as inflation cools without derailing growth.
Equities rallied broadly before paring some gains into the close. The Dow added about 150 points, the S&P 500 approached record territory, and the Nasdaq trimmed earlier strength. Rate-sensitive tech led early on, with Marvell Technology climbing nearly 8% as consumer sentiment improved and AI demand themes stayed front and center.
Treasury yields eased on the data, pressuring the US dollar. In FX, EUR/USD and GBP/USD edged higher as rate differentials narrowed, while USD/JPY slipped alongside US yields. Options markets reflected softer implied volatility, consistent with reduced tail-risk pricing after the inflation update.
Regulation, sector moves and single-stock standouts
X, the social media platform, is staring at a potential €130 million (about $140 million) penalty in the European Union for alleged content rule violations—an overhang that sharpened regulatory risk premia across digital advertising names. Traders flagged valuation sensitivity if enforcement intensifies.
Auto stocks sagged as policy headlines signaled a possible reset of US fuel economy standards. Investors weighed the potential cost relief for legacy lineups against the risk of slowing the EV transition, which could complicate capital spending plans and incentives.
Earnings drove outsized moves in consumer and software:
– Ulta Beauty surged about 14% on stronger margins and resilient demand.
– Victoria’s Secret jumped roughly 11% after better-than-feared results.
– Salesforce advanced around 5% on cleaner billings and cash flow.
– PSKY fell about 8% after a lost bid, while WRB slid nearly 7% on a stake sale.
Crypto slides as liquidations accelerate
Digital assets retreated, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $90,000 and Ether nearing $3,000. Roughly $493 million in crypto liquidations underscored fragile positioning and leveraged long exposure. The move diverged from equities, highlighting idiosyncratic crypto deleveraging rather than a broad risk-off impulse.
Structural tailwinds: eSIM adoption still early
eSIM penetration remains near 5% but momentum is building, led by travel demand and handset makers pushing eSIM-only devices. Investor focus has turned to connectivity platforms like Airalo as a potential beneficiary of rising global roaming and flexible plan uptake.
Key points
- Core PCE around 2.8% bolstered Fed rate-cut expectations, sending the S&P 500 toward record highs and easing the dollar.
- Dow rose about 150 points; Nasdaq and S&P 500 trimmed gains late as profit-taking set in.
- Marvell Technology rallied nearly 8%; ULTA +14%, VSCO +11%, CRM +5% on strong earnings; PSKY -8%, WRB -7% on deal news.
- X faces a potential $140 million EU fine tied to content rules, elevating regulatory risk for social media peers.
- Auto stocks fell on prospects of a fuel economy rule reset, complicating EV transition planning.
- Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 and ETH neared $3,000 amid roughly $493 million in liquidations.
- eSIM adoption sits near 5% but is poised to accelerate as travel and OEM support expand.
FX and rates: what traders are watching
– The PCE surprise leaned dovish, softening the dollar as yields dipped across the curve. Rate-sensitive crosses firmed, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD benefiting from narrower US-eurozone/UK yield gaps.
– USD/JPY eased alongside US real yields, though dip-buying interest remains tethered to the policy divergence narrative.
– Front-end pricing implies firmer odds of Fed cuts in the coming months, though officials are likely to keep optionality until inflation progress is clearer.
Outlook
Near term, risk appetite hinges on follow-through in inflation cooling and any guidance from Fed speakers. With the S&P 500 near records and FX volatility compressing, positioning is increasingly sensitive to surprises in growth data and corporate margins. Crypto remains a wildcard amid leverage cleansing. BPayNews will continue monitoring cross-asset spillovers from policy shifts and regulatory headlines.
FAQ
Why did US stocks climb today?
The core PCE inflation gauge was softer than feared, reinforcing expectations for Fed rate cuts. Lower yields boosted equity valuations, especially in tech and other duration-sensitive sectors.
What does the PCE print mean for the US dollar?
A benign PCE reading reduces pressure on the Fed to stay restrictive, pulling Treasury yields lower and weighing on the dollar. That supported pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD while USD/JPY eased with US rates.
How does the potential EU fine affect X and peers?
A roughly $140 million penalty raises regulatory risk for platform moderation and content compliance. For investors, it introduces headline and valuation volatility for ad-reliant social media companies.
Why did auto stocks fall?
Headlines about a possible reset of US fuel economy rules stirred uncertainty. While looser standards could cut near-term compliance costs, they may slow EV transitions and complicate long-term strategy and investment plans.
What drove the crypto selloff?
Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 and Ether neared $3,000 amid about $493 million in liquidations, pointing to leveraged positions being unwound. The move appeared more crypto-specific than a broad macro risk-off event.
Is eSIM adoption meaningful for investors yet?
Yes. While global penetration is around 5%, travel demand and eSIM-only phones are spurring growth. Platforms that simplify cross-border connectivity could see structural tailwinds as adoption scales.
When could the Fed cut rates?
Timing remains data-dependent. If inflation continues to cool and growth holds, markets expect the Fed to begin easing in coming months, but officials have signaled they will wait for clearer evidence before committing.
