Headline: Singapore Upgrades 2025 Growth Outlook After Q3 Beats Expectations
Key Takeaways
Singapore’s economy accelerated more than expected in the third quarter, setting the stage for a stronger year ahead. Robust external demand and firmer activity among key trading partners prompted the government to sharply lift its 2025 growth outlook, even as it flagged a cooler patch beyond next year.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.2% year-on-year in Q3, outpacing a 4.0% market consensus and well above the 2.9% advance estimate. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew 2.4% quarter-on-quarter. Reflecting the improved momentum, the Ministry of Trade and Industry now expects GDP to grow around 4.0% in 2025, upgraded from the earlier 1.5%–2.5% range.
Officials cautioned that the upswing may moderate in 2026 as the global cycle cools. The growth projection for 2026 stands at 1.0%–3.0%, with manufacturing and trade-related services likely to expand at a slower pace. Enterprise Singapore forecast non-oil domestic exports to rise about 2.5% in 2025, before easing to 0.0%–2.0% growth in 2026.
Monetary settings remain steady. The Monetary Authority of Singapore left policy unchanged in October, citing resilient growth amid trade headwinds. While Singapore faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its exports—lower than rates applied to some regional peers—sector-specific risks persist, including a potential 100% levy on branded pharmaceuticals. Authorities have delayed implementation of the drug tariff to allow more time for negotiations.
Key Points: – Q3 GDP rose 4.2% year-on-year, beating expectations; quarter-on-quarter growth was 2.4% seasonally adjusted. – MTI raised the 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0%, up from 1.5%–2.5%. – 2026 growth is projected at 1.0%–3.0%, with a softer outlook for manufacturing and trade-related services. – Enterprise Singapore sees NODX up about 2.5% in 2025; 2026 NODX growth forecast at 0.0%–2.0%. – MAS kept monetary policy unchanged in October amid resilient activity. – U.S. tariffs remain a risk, including a potential 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals; implementation has been delayed for talks.
