Key Developments
Retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
“Retail-driven exuberance,” increasingly channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), “set the stage for outsize moves,” continuing the precious metal rally from 2025, reported the BIS in a quarterly review released on Monday.
Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought around $70 billion in gold ETFs, and these purchases have more than tripled over the last six months, observed the Kobeissi Letter, citing BIS data on Thursday.
“Retail investors are all-in on precious metals,” it noted.
Gold has surged 60% over the past year, and some crypto proponents have speculated it has come at the expense of Bitcoin, which some argue competes with gold as a store-of-value asset.
Market Context
BIS data shows cumulative retail inflows effectively tripled from around $20 billion to roughly $60 billion over the six months from late Q3 2025 to the end of Q1 2026.
However, institutional selling started around mid-November and accelerated after the precious metals market began to correct in January, according to the data.
Bitcoin (BTC) is not the only asset susceptible to high volatility from overleveraged positions.
Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reversed abruptly in late January and February 2026, while the “daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and margin‑triggered liquidations amplified the swings,” particularly in silver, BIS reported.
Smaller speculative derivatives traders, or “non-reportables,” had built up heavily leveraged long positions in silver heading into the crash, it added.
What To Watch
Gold prices are currently down 9% from their late January all-time high, while silver has slumped much harder, dropping 34% over the same period, according to GoldPrice.
The abrupt price drop and the spike in precious metal volatility “point to the role of retail flows, and amplification of price moves due to forced sales by leveraged ETFs, trend-following investors such as commodity trading advisers, and margin dynamics,” BIS stated.
The bank concluded that gold and silver declines coincided with changing expectations around US monetary policy and the performance of the US dollar, which has gained 4.7% since late January, according to the DXY dollar index.
“The precious metals crash seemingly coincided with shifts in expectations about the US dollar and the path of monetary policy, but it was hard to square with broader changes in fundamentals.”
Meanwhile, crypto markets have fallen around 43% from their October total capitalization peak as retail sentiment and interest in digital assets have dried up and remain at bear market levels.
