Morgan Stanley tips DXY to 94 by mid‑2026, then snaps back into year-end
The U.S. dollar may weaken into the first half of 2026 before regaining ground, according to a fresh FX outlook that tracks shifting Federal Reserve expectations and softening U.S. data. The projection points to a round‑trip year for the greenback, with limited net impact on global portfolios and cross‑border payment flows by December.
Strategists anticipate the Dollar Index (DXY) easing from roughly 99.5 today toward 94.0 by mid‑2026. They cite lingering risk premium tied to a cooler labor market and uncertainty around the Fed’s rate‑cut path—conditions that typically lend support to risk assets and non‑U.S. currencies. As visibility on growth and monetary policy improves in the second half, that premium is expected to fade and the DXY to recover toward 99.0 by year‑end.
With a softer start and late‑year normalization, the bank has stepped back from advising broad hedges against U.S. dollar weakness. For investors and corporate treasurers, the takeaway is a largely neutral currency backdrop in 2026—manageable volatility, selective opportunities in forex markets, and limited distortion to international returns.
Key Points – DXY forecast: slide to about 94.0 by mid‑2026, then rebound toward 99.0 by year‑end – Early‑2026 weakness linked to labor‑market softness and uncertainty over Fed rate cuts – Mid‑year dollar dip seen as modestly supportive for risk assets and non‑U.S. currencies – Second‑half clarity on growth and policy expected to unwind the dollar’s risk premium – Broad hedging against USD weakness no longer recommended under this base case – Overall FX impact in 2026 expected to be neutral for global portfolios and payment flows
