JPMorgan tips Swiss franc to weaken, sets EUR/CHF at 0.95 for Q1 2026 and 0.96 by year-end
A brighter euro-area growth profile and ebbing safe-haven demand could tilt EUR/CHF higher into 2026, JPMorgan says, setting targets of 0.95 for the first quarter and 0.96 by the fourth as low Swiss yields leave the franc vulnerable if risk appetite holds.
Why the bank is leaning bullish on EUR/CHF
JPMorgan argues the euro–franc pair tends to track relative growth momentum, and that improving signals out of Europe have yet to be fully priced in by FX markets. As incoming “hard” data confirm firmer activity—or if forecasts are upgraded further—the bank expects pressure to build against the Swiss franc.
The bank also highlights structural headwinds for the franc:
– Switzerland’s low yield environment reduces carry appeal versus the euro if investors rotate toward growth and away from defensives.
– The franc’s safe-haven premium typically fades when global growth and risk sentiment remain resilient, curbing demand for shelter currencies.
Macro and policy drivers to watch
– Growth differentials: EUR/CHF is sensitive to Europe’s activity data versus Switzerland’s comparatively steady backdrop. Any upside surprises in euro-area PMIs, industrial output, or investment indicators could underpin the euro.
– Central banks: The European Central Bank’s path toward easier policy is widely watched, but the relative stance versus the Swiss National Bank matters more for EUR/CHF. With Swiss rates low and the SNB historically willing to lean against excessive currency strength, policy asymmetry can weigh on CHF when volatility subsides.
– Risk sentiment and volatility: A benign global backdrop tends to unwind haven flows into the franc. Conversely, risk-off spikes and higher FX volatility can revive CHF demand quickly.
What it means for traders
– A verified upswing in euro-area growth could lift EUR/CHF toward JPMorgan’s 0.95–0.96 trajectory across 2026.
– The main risks to the view: renewed global growth scares, geopolitics, or a drop in risk appetite that restores the franc’s defensive bid; a more hawkish-than-expected SNB if inflation reaccelerates.
– Key catalysts ahead include euro-area GDP revisions, inflation prints, PMIs, SNB policy meetings, and any SNB guidance on FX smoothing. Liquidity conditions and implied-volatility shifts will also be critical for timing.
Key points
- JPMorgan targets EUR/CHF at 0.95 in Q1 2026 and 0.96 by Q4 2026.
- Thesis: stronger European growth and unwinding safe-haven flows should weigh on CHF.
- Low Swiss yields diminish carry appeal, especially if global risk appetite holds.
- Confirmation via hard data and positive revisions could be the trigger for EUR/CHF upside.
- Main risks: risk-off shocks, geopolitics, or an unexpectedly hawkish SNB.
FAQ
What is JPMorgan’s forecast for EUR/CHF?
JPMorgan projects EUR/CHF at 0.95 in the first quarter of 2026, rising to 0.96 by the fourth quarter.
Why does JPMorgan expect the Swiss franc to weaken?
The bank sees improving European growth and reduced safe-haven demand eroding the franc’s support. Low Swiss yields also lessen CHF’s carry attraction relative to the euro when risk sentiment is stable.
What could push EUR/CHF higher sooner?
Clear upside surprises in euro-area hard data—such as PMIs shifting firmly into expansion, stronger industrial output, or upgraded GDP forecasts—could accelerate euro gains versus the franc.
What are the main risks to the bullish EUR/CHF view?
A global risk-off episode, geopolitical flare-ups, or a more hawkish-than-expected Swiss National Bank could restore haven demand for CHF and cap EUR/CHF upside.
Which events should traders watch?
SNB and ECB meetings, euro-area inflation and GDP updates, PMI releases, and shifts in FX volatility. Any SNB commentary on currency strength or liquidity measures will also be pivotal for EUR/CHF.
This article was prepared by BPayNews to inform FX market participants about evolving macro and policy drivers behind the euro–franc outlook.
Last updated on November 25th, 2025 at 10:53 pm
