Asia stocks mixed as Fed angst, Japan–China tensions cap risk; oil climbs, futures flat
Asian equities traded mixed as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and monitored rising geopolitical strain between Japan and China. Oil advanced, while US stock futures hovered near record levels after two straight winning weeks, with forex markets staying rangebound ahead of the policy call.
Market snapshot
- Asian shares were uneven on Fed uncertainty and Japan–China tensions; US futures were little changed near all-time highs.
- China’s November exports rose 5.9% year over year, but shipments to the US slumped 29%, underscoring persistent trade frictions.
- US private-sector payrolls reportedly fell by 32,000 in November, raising questions about labor market momentum and policy risks.
- Oil prices rose on tighter supply expectations; soybean futures bounced on China trade hopes but remain near 2020 lows.
- Ulta Beauty rallied 12.7% and Victoria’s Secret jumped 18% after earnings; crypto exchange Coinbase maps India re-entry with a 2026 fiat on-ramp.
Cautious Asia trade as the Fed looms
Risk appetite was subdued across Asia as markets priced a high likelihood that the Fed will keep rates on hold while signaling a data-dependent path for 2025. Liquidity was thinner ahead of the decision, leaving regional benchmarks mixed and intraday ranges tight. US equity futures were flat, with investors balancing the prospect of a soft landing against signs of cooling growth.
FX: Rangebound ahead of policy
In FX markets, positioning stayed light. The US dollar traded in narrow bands against the yen and euro, reflecting reluctance to take directional bets before the Fed’s dot plot and guidance. Commodity-linked currencies found modest support from firmer crude but gains were capped by lingering macro uncertainty. The offshore yuan steadied after China’s mixed trade print, while broader EMFX traded defensively on policy and geopolitics.
China’s export beat masks deeper US weakness
China’s headline exports grew 5.9% in November, hinting at a stabilization in global demand. Under the surface, shipments to the United States tumbled 29%, highlighting a still-fractured trade relationship despite talk of a limited truce. Investors are watching whether advanced manufacturing—and particularly high-value exports—can offset ongoing tariff and tech restrictions. For FX, the split underscores why the yuan’s rallies remain tentative.
US jobs wobble heightens policy sensitivity
A reported 32,000 decline in US private payrolls in November adds to evidence of cooling momentum among small businesses facing rising costs. The print keeps attention on Friday’s broader labor data and increases the stakes for the Fed’s communication. Traders are weighing whether softer hiring and easing inflation could bring forward 2025 rate-cut discussions, even as policymakers stress caution.
Commodities: Oil firms, agriculture struggles
Crude prices advanced as traders focused on supply discipline and seasonal demand, nudging energy-linked currencies higher at the margin. In agriculture, soybean futures rose on hopes of improved China purchasing but remain near 2020 lows, a sign of persistent oversupply and demand uncertainty. US farmers are set to receive $12 billion in aid to cushion low prices and tariff fallout—support that steadies rural incomes but doesn’t resolve price headwinds.
Earnings pop and crypto headlines
On the micro side, earnings lifted select US retail names: Ulta Beauty surged 12.7% and Victoria’s Secret climbed 18%, helping sentiment in consumer discretionary. In digital assets, Coinbase outlined a return to India with a planned fiat on-ramp in 2026 despite a 30% crypto tax regime; partner exchange CoinDCX is valued near $2.45 billion. While not a driver for FX, the headlines highlight a cautious reopening of crypto market access in large emerging economies.
What traders are watching next
With Wall Street flirting with record highs after two winning weeks, the tone from the Fed—on growth resilience, inflation persistence, and the 2025 rate path—will set the near-term direction for equities, yields, and the dollar. Volatility could pick up if guidance deviates from market-implied cuts or if the dot plot skews more hawkish than expected. For now, positioning is conservative and liquidity is thin, a classic pre-decision setup that can amplify post-statement moves across FX and global stocks, BPayNews notes.
FAQ
What moved Asian stocks today?
Mixed risk sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and concerns over Japan–China tensions left Asian markets uneven. Gains in energy shares on higher oil prices helped offset pockets of weakness.
How did China’s trade data affect FX and commodities?
China’s headline export growth supported the offshore yuan, but a sharp 29% drop in shipments to the US tempered enthusiasm. Oil held a bid on supply dynamics, while soybeans rose on hopes of improved China demand but stayed near multi-year lows.
What does the US private payrolls drop mean for the Fed?
The reported 32,000 decline in private jobs in November points to cooling in the small-business sector. It increases sensitivity to upcoming labor and inflation data and could influence the Fed’s 2025 rate-cut expectations, depending on guidance.
Are US equities still near record highs?
Yes. US stock futures were flat near all-time highs after two consecutive winning weeks, with investors waiting for the Fed’s signal before extending risk.
Which sectors and names stood out?
Consumer discretionary outperformed on earnings, with Ulta Beauty up 12.7% and Victoria’s Secret up 18%. In crypto, Coinbase’s planned India re-entry with a 2026 fiat on-ramp drew attention to regulatory shifts in emerging markets.
