Risk rally lifts tech and crypto as rate-cut bets build; Goldman turns more constructive on yuan
Key Takeaways
Risk appetite firmed across asset classes, with Bitcoin briefly clearing $89,000 and U.S. tech stocks rallying as traders priced in a more accommodative Federal Reserve path. Flows signaled caution, however, with U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posting a record $3.5 billion in outflows even as on-exchange volumes swelled. Goldman Sachs trimmed its USD/CNY projections, citing a controlled PBoC fixing and improving Chinese data.
Crypto surges despite record ETF outflows Bitcoin pushed above $89,000, extending gains amid broader risk-on sentiment and expectations that easier monetary policy could bolster liquidity-sensitive assets. Altcoins outperformed, many advancing more than 10% as traders rotated into higher-beta names. Bitcoin miners also jumped on reports of new AI infrastructure initiatives that could diversify revenue streams.
Under the surface, flows were mixed. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.5 billion in net outflows—described by traders as the largest on record—during what many characterized as crypto’s toughest month since 2022. ETF turnover approached $40 billion, underscoring elevated FX volatility and positioning churn. Several desks flagged continued whale distribution, a dynamic that could temper upside momentum near the psychological $100,000 threshold.
Tech-led equity rebound on policy hopes U.S. equities rallied as falling rate expectations boosted long-duration growth exposures. The Nasdaq Composite rose about 2.5%, while the S&P 500 added roughly 1.6%, led by megacap technology names including Alphabet and Tesla. AI-linked enthusiasm provided an additional tailwind, helping compress credit spreads and supporting broader risk sentiment.
FX watch: Goldman trims USD/CNY path Goldman Sachs revised its dollar-yuan profile to 6.95 in three months, 6.90 in six months, and 6.85 at 12 months. The bank argued the yuan remains undervalued relative to improving macro prints and highlighted the PBoC’s tightly managed guidance, noting a “gradual descent” in the daily fixing. Strategists said the controlled glide path could anchor FX volatility while keeping speculative pressures in check, with carry and onshore liquidity conditions key to near-term direction.
Macro outlook: slower labor market, sticky inflation Medium-term projections circulating among macro desks point to a potential pickup in U.S. growth by 2026, even as inflation proves sticky and job gains moderate. Unemployment is seen drifting toward 4.5%, keeping focus on the Fed’s reaction function. Traders are watching whether softer labor momentum and easing core inflation will be sufficient to validate the market’s rate-cut trajectory without reigniting price pressures.
Geopolitics on the radar Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, FNN reported, with the U.S. side expected to brief Tokyo on a recent call with China’s President Xi. The conversation follows Takaichi’s warning that an attack on Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response. Markets will monitor any rhetoric that could influence safe-haven flows and Asia FX.
Market Highlights – Bitcoin tops $89,000; altcoins gain 10%+ on risk-on tone and policy hopes – U.S. Bitcoin ETFs see about $3.5 billion in record net outflows; turnover near $40 billion – Nasdaq up ~2.5%, S&P 500 +1.6%, led by Alphabet and Tesla; AI theme supports multiples – Goldman Sachs shifts USD/CNY to 6.95 (3M), 6.90 (6M), 6.85 (12M); cites undervaluation and managed fixing – Traders eye U.S. labor and inflation prints to validate rate-cut pricing and risk positioning
Questions and answers Q: Why is Bitcoin rallying if ETFs are seeing outflows? A: Spot demand on exchanges, short covering, and rotation into higher-beta crypto can offset ETF redemptions in the short term. Elevated volumes suggest active two-way liquidity, with whales reportedly selling into strength near key levels.
Q: What do Goldman’s USD/CNY forecasts imply for FX traders? A: A gradual yuan appreciation path suggests lower FX volatility and a controlled policy backdrop. Positioning may favor selective short USD/CNH expressions, but carry and onshore liquidity will remain decisive.
Q: How do rate-cut bets support tech valuations? A: Lower discount rates lift the present value of future cash flows, expanding multiples for long-duration growth assets. The AI narrative amplifies this effect by boosting earnings expectations in key megacaps.
Q: What should traders watch next? A: Upcoming U.S. labor and inflation data, PBoC fixings, ETF flow momentum, and any geopolitical headlines from the planned U.S.–Japan dialogue. Cross-asset correlation shifts will be important for risk management.
This cross-asset wrap was compiled by BPayNews editors using market commentary and institutional research inputs.
