Headline: Gold Rallies With Risk Assets, Testing Key Resistance Levels
Gold is refusing to stay down. As optimism grows over a resolution to the US government shutdown and risk assets extend their gains, the precious metal has climbed sharply as well. XAU/USD advanced nearly 3% in the latest session, signaling robust demand even as equities push toward recent highs.
From a technical perspective, gold is challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late-October decline. After a drop of more than 10%, the rebound has already reclaimed roughly 6% from the recent low near the $3,900 area, putting the next targets in focus. A sustained hold above the 50% retracement would strengthen the bullish case for a move toward the $4,200 zone, with the October highs around $4,375–$4,381 as the next significant hurdle.
The move higher comes despite a broader risk-on backdrop, underscoring gold’s evolving role. While still a classic safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation, policy uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt, gold is also benefiting from ample liquidity and persistent demand from central banks and ETFs. October saw roughly $8.2 billion in ETF inflows, a fifth straight month of additions, with notable contributions from Asia-based buyers. This dual dynamic suggests investors are hedging macro risks even as they pursue gains in equities.
Looking ahead, the outlook hinges on inflation, interest-rate expectations, and the pace of global growth. If pricing pressures remain sticky and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, gold could stay supported—though that scenario may eventually weigh on risk assets. Conversely, if the inflation narrative eases into next year, both gold and stocks could continue to climb in tandem, albeit with a slower upside profile for bullion after its strong run.
Key Points: – Gold (XAU/USD) jumped nearly 3% as risk assets rallied on improved shutdown sentiment. – Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the late-October sell-off. – A hold above this level opens the door to $4,200 and potentially the October highs near $4,375–$4,381. – Central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows—about $8.2 billion in October—are underpinning demand. – Persistent inflation and delayed rate cuts would favor gold but could challenge equities over time. – Easing inflation into next year may allow gold and stocks to rise together, albeit more moderately.
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