Global Markets Brace for Data-Heavy Week as Inflation, Wages, and Jobs Lead the Agenda
Key Takeaways
A packed economic calendar is set to test market sentiment this week, with investors watching inflation, wages, and employment data across major economies for fresh guidance on interest rates and growth. From Canada’s CPI to U.S. nonfarm payrolls and global PMI snapshots, the releases will shape expectations for central bank policy into year-end.
The week opens with Canada’s inflation report, followed by minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. Midweek brings Australia’s quarterly Wage Price Index, the U.K.’s inflation update, and U.S. FOMC minutes. On Thursday, attention shifts to U.S. jobless claims and existing home sales. Friday culminates in Japan’s national core CPI, U.K. retail sales, flash manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone, U.K., and U.S., plus updated U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak throughout the week.
Canada’s CPI is expected to cool at the headline level, helped by a sharp decline in gasoline prices and a more modest rise in property-tax inputs than a year ago. Consensus sees CPI up 0.2% m/m, with annual measures easing: median CPI at 3.1% y/y, trimmed at 3.0%, and common at 2.8%. Underlying pressures are likely to stay firm, with prices excluding food and energy near 2.4% y/y and the Bank of Canada’s preferred core gauges hovering around 3%. Continued disinflation would strengthen the case for additional BoC rate cuts. In Australia, the Wage Price Index is forecast to rise 0.8% q/q, though some expect a softer 0.7% as this year’s 3.5% award wage increase and cooling momentum in individual agreements temper pay growth compared with last year’s 3.75% uplift.
In the U.S., the resumption of delayed data places the September jobs report in focus. Markets expect a modest 45,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged 4.3% unemployment rate, with risks skewed toward a tick up to 4.4%. Wage growth likely held steady at about 0.3% m/m, keeping annual earnings near 3.7%. Slower hiring and softer hours worked could weigh on household income and spending against a backdrop of persistent inflation, influencing the Fed’s near-term path. In Europe, flash PMIs should offer a timely read on momentum after last month’s upside surprise pushed manufacturing back to the 50 threshold and lifted the composite to its strongest since mid-2024. Economists look for only minor changes this month, while the ECB is expected to stay on hold unless inflation undershoots, the euro strengthens, or confidence indicators weaken.
Key Points – Canada CPI: headline seen cooling to 0.2% m/m; median 3.1% y/y, trimmed 3.0%, common 2.8%; core pressures remain near 2.4% y/y ex-food and energy. – BoC outlook: Further easing becomes more likely if disinflation persists despite still-elevated core measures. – Australia wages: WPI expected at 0.8% q/q, with some forecasts at 0.7% amid smaller award wage increases and moderating pay momentum. – U.S. labor market: Payrolls seen up 45,000; unemployment steady at 4.3% with risk of 4.4%; average hourly earnings around +0.3% m/m and ~3.7% y/y. – Key releases: RBA minutes, UK CPI, U.S. FOMC minutes, U.S. jobless claims and home sales, Japan core CPI, UK retail sales, flash PMIs for Eurozone/UK/U.S., and U.S. consumer sentiment. – Policy watch: Multiple FOMC speakers and Eurozone PMI outcomes could sway expectations for Fed and ECB policy into year-end.
