Black Friday 2025: Online Sales Shatter Records as In-Store Traffic Slips, Leaving Retail Stocks Mixed and Risk Tone Cautious
U.S. Black Friday spending accelerated year over year, but the momentum was overwhelmingly digital. E-commerce set fresh records while mall traffic declined, leaving retail equities mixed in pre-market trade and feeding a cautious risk tone across U.S. futures.
Online Outpaces Stores by a Wide Margin
Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed that retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday. The composition tells the bigger story: e-commerce jumped 10.4% while in-store sales grew 1.7%, underscoring how holiday demand is consolidating online.
- Apparel: +5.7%, supported by colder weather in the Midwest and Northeast.
- Restaurants: +4.5%, suggesting consumers still favor services and experiences.
- Jewelry: +2.8%, a modest gain in higher-ticket discretionary.
Adobe and Salesforce: Record Digital Spend, Mobile Breakthrough
Adobe Analytics reported a record $11.8 billion spent online in 24 hours, up 9.1% from 2024, with smartphones accounting for more than 50% of purchases for the first time—cementing the rise of “couch commerce.” Salesforce, which tracks a broader merchant network, estimated $18 billion in U.S. online sales and roughly $79 billion globally for the day. Salesforce also flagged a sharp rise in AI tools and price-comparison usage, a trend that increases price sensitivity and could pressure retailer margins even as volumes hold up.
Foot Traffic Falls Despite Higher In-Store Ticket Sizes
RetailNext data showed brick-and-mortar foot traffic fell 3.6% from last year, implying fewer visits but slightly higher spend per trip amid a higher-price environment. The divergence—robust online, subdued footfall—adds a layer of complexity to the holiday margin outlook.
Market Reaction: Defensive Retailers Hold Up; Tech-Led Risk-Off Tone
Pre-market moves were mixed as investors weighed record online spending against a tech-led risk pullback. Nasdaq futures fell by more than 200 points ahead of the open, with some traders citing profit-taking in technology and concern over margin compression for discretionary names.
- Walmart (WMT): up ~0.31% around $110.82; retains a defensive bid as budget-conscious consumers gravitate to value.
- Target (TGT): down ~0.50% around $90.17 vs $90.62 close.
- Best Buy (BBY): down ~0.95% around $78.53 vs $79.28.
- Amazon (AMZN): off ~0.03% near $233.07, in line with broader tech softness despite industry-wide online records.
- Macy’s (M): down ~0.33% around $22.03 amid weak mall traffic dynamics.
- Nike (NKE): down ~1.18% around $63.86 vs $64.63 close.
- Lululemon (LULU): down ~0.83% around $182.65 vs $184.18 close.
Macro and FX Angle: Consumer Resilience Meets Margin Pressure
For macro and FX traders, the data signal resilient demand but intensifying price competition online. The mix favors a soft-landing narrative on growth while keeping the inflation debate nuanced: aggressive discounting and AI-driven price transparency can cap goods inflation, but sustained services spend (restaurants) keeps demand sturdy. In rates and FX, that balance can leave yields and the U.S. dollar sensitive to incoming data and retailer guidance. A risk-off equity tone—seen in Nasdaq futures—can also tilt flows toward the dollar and high-quality duration in thin post-holiday liquidity.
What to Watch Next
- Cyber Monday follow-through and the trajectory of online discounts.
- Retailer commentary on margins, promotions, and inventory health.
- Shifts in consumer mix toward essentials vs. discretionary as the season progresses.
- Broader risk sentiment and its spillover into the dollar and rate expectations.
Key points
- U.S. retail sales (ex-auto) rose 4.1% on Black Friday, led by a 10.4% surge in e-commerce vs. 1.7% in-store growth (Mastercard SpendingPulse).
- Online spend hit a record $11.8B in 24 hours, up 9.1% year-over-year; smartphones drove over 50% of purchases (Adobe).
- Salesforce estimates $18B U.S. online and $79B global online sales; AI tools boosted price sensitivity.
- Foot traffic declined 3.6%, pressuring mall-based retailers (RetailNext).
- Retail stocks were mixed pre-market; defensive names outperformed as Nasdaq futures slid more than 200 points.
FAQ
What were the headline results from Black Friday 2025?
Retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year. E-commerce was the standout, up 10.4%, while in-store sales gained 1.7%.
How large was online spending and what changed in shopper behavior?
Adobe reported a record $11.8 billion spent online in a single day, up 9.1% from last year. Over half of purchases happened on smartphones for the first time, highlighting the shift to mobile.
Which categories performed best?
Apparel (+5.7%), restaurants (+4.5%), and jewelry (+2.8%) led gains, reflecting a mix of seasonal needs and ongoing appetite for services and experiences.
What happened to in-store traffic?
RetailNext said foot traffic fell 3.6% versus 2024. Those who did visit stores spent more per trip, but overall visits declined.
How did stocks respond pre-market?
Moves were mixed: Walmart edged higher, while Target, Best Buy, Amazon, Macy’s, Nike, and Lululemon were modestly lower. Nasdaq futures were down over 200 points, pointing to a cautious open.
What’s the implication for FX and bond markets?
Resilient demand with heavy discounting implies a mixed inflation signal. That backdrop can keep the U.S. dollar sensitive to data and risk tone; a tech-led risk-off bias may support the dollar in the near term, according to BPayNews analysis.
What should traders watch next?
Cyber Monday momentum, retailer margin commentary, inventory trends, and how risk sentiment evolves as the holiday season progresses.
