Black Friday strength steadies risk tone as traders hold December rate-cut bets
Early holiday shopping data point to a resilient North American consumer, bolstering risk appetite while derivatives markets continue to lean toward a December rate cut despite firm spending.
Holiday kickoff outpaces last year
- Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates U.S. Black Friday retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year over year, faster than last year’s 3.4% pace.
- Adobe projects online sales through Cyber Monday up 6.3% y/y, underscoring continued strength in e-commerce.
- Salesforce reports Canadian online sales up 9% y/y over the weekend, highlighting surprising consumer resilience north of the border.
Stronger traffic and stable ticket sizes suggest shoppers remain engaged, even as retailers leaned on promotions to convert demand. The mix—healthy nominal growth alongside heavy discounting—keeps the disinflation narrative intact and supports the case for easier policy, a balance risk assets typically favor into year-end.
Markets: FX, rates and equities reaction
FX and rates
– For currencies, the data are a mild positive for pro-cyclical FX. The Canadian dollar finds support from firmer domestic online sales, while the U.S. dollar reaction is mixed as solid spending is offset by lingering rate-cut expectations.
– U.S. Treasury yields may stay rangebound: better growth signals argue for higher long-end rates, but discount-driven sales and cooling inflation trends temper the move.
Equities
– Retail and e-commerce names typically benefit from positive holiday reads, with logistics and payments also leveraged to volume. Margin commentary will be the next pivot: deep promotions lift revenues but can compress profitability—key for equity selection into December.
Policy outlook: cut odds remain elevated
Futures markets still imply roughly an 85% probability of a December 10 rate cut, suggesting investors see Black Friday/Cyber Monday momentum as compatible with ongoing disinflation and a soft-landing backdrop. For traders, the interplay between robust consumption and margin dynamics will shape whether the growth impulse or the easing narrative dominates FX and rates into the year-end liquidity squeeze, BPayNews notes.
Key points
- U.S. Black Friday ex-auto sales up 4.1% y/y (Mastercard SpendingPulse).
- Online sales through Cyber Monday up 6.3% y/y (Adobe).
- Canada’s online sales rose 9% y/y over the weekend (Salesforce).
- Derivatives price about an 85% chance of a December 10 rate cut.
- FX take: CAD supported; USD mixed as yields hold in ranges.
FAQ
How strong were U.S. Black Friday sales?
U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year over year on Black Friday, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, improving on last year’s 3.4% pace.
What do online sales through Cyber Monday show?
Adobe projects online sales through Cyber Monday up 6.3% y/y, signaling e-commerce demand remained robust throughout the holiday kickoff.
What stands out in Canada’s data?
Salesforce reported a 9% y/y increase in Canadian online sales for the weekend, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite broader macro uncertainty.
Do these figures change rate-cut expectations?
Not materially. Futures still indicate around an 85% chance of a December 10 rate cut, as strong volumes appear driven by discounting alongside easing inflation pressures.
How might FX traders position on this?
The Canadian dollar may stay underpinned by firmer local demand, while the U.S. dollar could trade mixed as solid consumption is balanced by persistent expectations of policy easing and rangebound yields.
