Goldman Sachs flags softer US dollar into year-end as data drip, policy bets weigh
The Wall Street bank expects a gradual softening in the US dollar through the turn of the year, arguing that a slow release of US economic data will reveal cooling momentum—especially in the labor market—paving the way for easier Fed policy and a weaker greenback.
Why Goldman expects a weaker dollar
Goldman Sachs sees multiple headwinds building for the dollar into December. As delayed US indicators trickle out, the bank expects the underlying trend to show a slower economy and moderating employment. That mix typically compresses US yields at the front end and narrows rate differentials, eroding the dollar’s carry advantage.
With implied FX volatility still contained, investors have been reluctant to chase the dollar higher. A steadier global risk backdrop, combined with rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the months ahead, adds a further drag on the greenback’s appeal into year-end positioning.
Cross-currents supporting non-dollar FX
Goldman also points to regional dynamics that could cap dollar gains against key counterparts:
- USD/JPY: Stronger verbal intervention signals from Tokyo raise the bar for sustained dollar-yen upside, discouraging speculative longs.
- GBP/USD: Sterling’s resilience following a benign UK budget suggests reduced fiscal risk premium, supporting the pound into December flows.
- USD/CNY: Renewed yuan strength and firmer guidance from Beijing have stabilized the pair, limiting broad-dollar strength across Asia.
Seasonality, sentiment and liquidity conditions
The turn of the year is often dollar-negative as global rebalancing, improved risk appetite and thinner liquidity nudge investors toward higher-beta FX and away from defensive dollar exposure. That seasonal pattern aligns with fundamental signals flagged by Goldman—and echoed by other banks—that December tends to favor selective dollar selling, especially if US data softens and yields drift lower. For traders, that points to a tactical bias toward EUR/USD on dips, a cautious approach to chasing USD/JPY higher, and an eye on GBP and select EM Asia FX for incremental outperformance.
Key Points
- Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar to weaken into year-end as delayed data reveal softer growth and labor trends.
- Rising Fed policy easing expectations and subdued FX volatility weigh on the greenback.
- Tokyo’s intervention warnings, resilient sterling post-budget, and firmer yuan all limit broad USD upside.
- Seasonal year-end flows historically favor selective dollar selling amid steadier risk sentiment.
Market implications
For FX, the setup argues for a modest pro-cyclical tilt: EUR/USD supported on dips as US-EZ rate differentials narrow; USD/JPY capped by intervention risk and potential yield compression; GBP/USD underpinned by improved UK fiscal optics; and USD/CNY constrained by tighter onshore guidance. In equities and commodities, a gentler dollar is typically supportive at the margin, easing financial conditions for global risk assets and providing a tailwind to dollar-priced commodities. As always, the path depends on incoming US data and the Fed’s communication cadence—key catalysts as markets enter year-end.
FAQ
Why does Goldman Sachs see the dollar weakening into year-end?
The bank expects delayed US data to confirm cooling momentum—particularly in the labor market—boosting the case for Fed easing. Softer growth, lower front-end yields and a steadier risk backdrop usually weigh on the dollar.
Which currency pairs might benefit most?
EUR/USD could gain as rate differentials narrow; USD/JPY may face topside resistance amid intervention risk; GBP/USD can be supported by reduced UK fiscal concerns; and USD/CNY looks constrained by firmer yuan policy settings.
How does seasonality affect December FX trading?
Year-end often brings portfolio rebalancing, thinner liquidity and better risk appetite, all of which can reduce demand for the dollar and favor higher-beta or undervalued currencies.
What could invalidate a weaker-dollar view?
Stronger-than-expected US data, a hawkish Fed pivot, a sharp risk-off shock or a renewed spike in US yields could revive dollar strength and disrupt the year-end seasonal pattern.
How should traders position around this outlook?
Consider a selective, tactical bias against the USD—favoring EUR and GBP on dips and being cautious with USD/JPY topside—while closely monitoring incoming US data and policy signals. This article is independent analysis by BPayNews and not investment advice.
