Germany’s Composite PMI Revised Up to 52.4 as Services Cushion Growth, Manufacturing Slump Deepens
Germany’s private-sector activity stayed in expansion in November, with the HCOB Composite PMI revised up to 52.4 from the 52.1 flash. The uptick offers a mild relief for risk sentiment, though growth slowed from October and momentum in services cooled, underscoring a fragile macro backdrop for euro traders.
At a glance
- Germany’s final Composite PMI: 52.4 (flash: 52.1), down from 53.9 in October
- Services remain the growth anchor, but momentum softened in November
- New business and employment still rising, albeit at a slower pace
- Input cost pressures eased; selling price inflation also cooled, pressuring margins
- Manufacturing recession deepened, weighing on industry-linked services
Services keep growth just above zero
HCOB’s Cyrus de la Rubia said the services economy is likely to keep Germany’s growth “just above zero” in Q4 despite softer momentum in November, with consumer caution curbing demand and a deeper factory downturn spilling over into industry-related services. Even so, resilience in services continues to offset manufacturing weakness.
“The continued growth in new business suggests that business activity in the service sector will also grow in the last month of the year,” de la Rubia noted, adding that expansionary fiscal policy and higher investment in 2025 could lift services growth to above 1%, from an estimated 0.4% this year.
Price pressures cool, margins squeezed
The survey signaled further disinflation on the cost side, with service providers reporting slower input price increases. But weaker pricing power meant firms passed on less inflation to customers, limiting the ability to rebuild margins. For the European Central Bank, softer pipeline inflation is consistent with easing core pressures, though wage dynamics remain the key variable into 2025.
Market view: supportive revision, but growth still soft
For FX and rates, the upward revision versus the flash print should limit downside pressure on the euro, while the slower pace versus October tempers any bullish impulse. German Bund yields may stay range-bound as investors balance softening growth with moderating inflation. With manufacturing still in recession, the composite’s expansionary signal looks fragile, and traders will watch upcoming ECB communication and Germany’s fiscal stance for cues on the euro and regional risk assets.
What to watch next
– December PMIs and hard data on German retail sales and industrial production for confirmation of Q4 trajectory.
– ECB rhetoric on the timing and pace of any 2025 rate cuts as price pressures ease.
– Germany’s fiscal setting and investment plans, cited by HCOB as potential supports to services next year.
FAQ
What does a Composite PMI of 52.4 mean?
A reading above 50 signals expansion in private-sector activity. Germany’s 52.4 indicates modest growth, driven largely by services.
Why did the upward revision matter for markets?
Being revised above the flash (52.1) suggests activity was a touch stronger than initially estimated. That can modestly support the euro and risk sentiment, even if overall momentum slowed from October.
How are prices evolving according to the survey?
Input cost inflation eased and output price inflation slowed, pointing to ongoing disinflation. However, weaker pricing power also means firms struggled to expand profit margins.
What’s the outlook for Germany’s services sector?
HCOB expects services to keep growing into year-end, with potential acceleration in 2025 if expansionary fiscal policy and higher investment materialize.
What are the implications for the ECB?
Cooling price pressures align with a gradual disinflation narrative, but the ECB will weigh wage growth and labor tightness before signaling a clearer path to rate cuts. A soft growth backdrop could keep policy expectations cautious.
How does this affect EUR/USD?
The modest beat versus the flash is euro-supportive at the margin, but the downshift from October and persistent manufacturing weakness limit upside. Traders will focus on ECB guidance and upcoming data for direction.
Reporting by BPayNews.
