Stocks drift as Europe closes mixed; U.S. yields slip on cooler ISM prices and soft ADP
European equities ended mixed while Wall Street traded sideways, as softer U.S. labor signals and easing services-sector price pressure nudged Treasury yields lower and kept the dollar range-bound. Traders weighed a slightly firmer ISM services headline against weaker private payrolls and slack industrial capacity.
Key points
- Major European indices were mixed: DAX slightly lower, CAC 40 up about 0.4%, FTSE 100 marginally down; Spain’s IBEX outperformed.
- U.S. stocks were split into the New York afternoon: Dow up ~0.4%, S&P 500 near flat, Nasdaq slightly softer.
- U.S. Treasury yields dipped but off intraday lows: 2-year around 3.50%, 10-year near 4.07%, 30-year steady.
- U.S. ISM Services PMI ticked up to 52.6; prices paid fell sharply to 65.4, a cooler inflation signal.
- ADP private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, with notable small-business weakness; wage growth eased further.
- Industrial production rose 0.1% in September, but capacity utilization stayed subdued at 75.9%.
- Oil firmed, gold softened; FX was restrained as rates edged lower and risk appetite remained cautious.
Equities: Europe mixed, Wall Street range-bound
European bourses closed with a split tape. Germany’s DAX slipped, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged lower, and Italy’s FTSE MIB was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 gained and Spain’s IBEX led higher. In the U.S., equities were largely directionless: the Dow outperformed on defensives, the S&P 500 hovered near unchanged, and the Nasdaq slipped as megacap growth underperformed. Liquidity remained orderly, but conviction was light into the close of European trade.
Rates: Treasuries bid as inflation signal cools
Treasury yields fell across the curve after data showed cooling input price pressures in services and a softer ADP print, though yields later lifted from session lows. The 2-year hovered near 3.50% (down about 2 bps), the 10-year around 4.07% (down roughly 1–2 bps), and the 30-year was steady near 4.74%. The move reflects modestly stronger confidence in the disinflation path without a decisive growth scare.
FX: Dollar steadies; risk FX capped
The dollar initially eased with rates before stabilizing as yields came off the lows, leaving major pairs largely range-bound. Euro and sterling held a slight bid on the European close given firmer regional equity sentiment, but follow-through was muted. High-beta FX couldn’t fully capitalize on softer yields amid lingering growth uncertainty and mixed U.S. data.
Commodities: Oil edges up, gold eases
Crude prices firmed on light buying, while precious metals slipped as yields rebounded intraday from the weakest levels. The sharp drop in ISM services prices paid was supportive for the medium-term disinflation narrative, but near-term bullion flows were constrained by steadier real yields and a marginally firmer dollar into the U.S. afternoon.
Macro wrap: Mixed growth, easier prices
ISM Services (November)
– Headline PMI rose to 52.6 from 52.4, signaling modest expansion.
– Business activity strengthened to 54.5; employment improved to 48.9 but remained below the 50 line.
– New orders cooled to 52.9, the weakest since September.
– Crucially, prices paid fell sharply to 65.4 from 70.0, hinting at cooling input inflation.
– Respondents cited tariff uncertainty, margin pressure, and uneven demand, though supply chains showed ongoing stabilization.
ADP Private Payrolls (November)
– Private payrolls fell by 32,000 versus expectations for a gain.
– Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs; medium and large firms added 51,000 and 39,000, respectively.
– Sector detail: education and leisure/hospitality gained; manufacturing, information, and professional/business services declined.
– Wage growth cooled further: job changers +4.4%, job stayers +6.3%.
Industrial Production (September)
– Headline output rose 0.1%, but revisions painted a softer backdrop.
– Capacity utilization held at 75.9%, below the 77.3% expected.
– Q3 output rose at a 1.1% annual rate, suggesting the sector entered fall with less momentum.
Taken together, the data mix favors the “slow-and-steady disinflation” camp—supportive of lower volatility across FX and rates—yet also flags pockets of softness, especially in small businesses and manufacturing. For traders, the balance between softer labor momentum and easing price pressures remains pivotal for the next leg in Treasury yields and the dollar. As one BPayNews takeaway: dips in yields are finding buyers, but growth doubts cap risk-on rotations.
FAQ
How did today’s U.S. data affect FX markets?
The combination of a slightly stronger ISM services headline and a softer ADP print left the dollar little changed overall. Initial dollar softness on falling yields faded as rates rebounded intraday, keeping major pairs range-bound.
Which European indices outperformed?
Spain’s IBEX led gains, while France’s CAC 40 also advanced. Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 finished slightly lower, and Italy’s FTSE MIB was near flat.
What do the ISM services prices imply for inflation?
The sharp drop in prices paid to 65.4 suggests cooling input cost pressures in services, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and supporting lower-rate expectations over time if the trend persists.
What does the ADP report signal ahead of the official payrolls?
ADP showed a 32,000 decline in private payrolls with pronounced small-business weakness and easing wage growth. While ADP is an imperfect predictor, it tilts risks toward a softer official payrolls print.
How are Treasuries trading?
Yields fell across the curve following the data but were off session lows by the New York afternoon, with the 2-year near 3.50% and the 10-year around 4.07%.
What’s next for traders to watch?
Focus remains on upcoming labor data, inflation inputs, and any guidance from Federal Reserve speakers. The interplay between slowing jobs momentum and easing price pressures will drive the next move in yields, the dollar, and risk assets.
