Headline: European FX Wrap: Fed Cut Uncertainty Keeps Risk Appetite Muted
Introduction: Caution dominated European forex trading as investors weighed mixed PMI data and fading hopes of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The US dollar firmed, precious metals slipped, and high-beta assets underperformed, with traders shifting focus to US flash PMI readings later in the day.
Eurozone survey data offered a modest bright spot, with services activity beating expectations (Eurozone services PMI 53.1; France services 50.8), even as Germany’s manufacturing gauge softened to 48.4. In the UK, momentum faltered: retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in October and the November services PMI dipped to 50.5 versus 52.0 expected, reinforcing bets that the Bank of England could deliver a 25 bp cut in December. By contrast, the European Central Bank remains in wait-and-see mode. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos reiterated a neutral stance, with de Guindos characterizing growth risks as broadly balanced and policy calibrated to secure inflation at target.
Currency moves reflected risk aversion and shifting rate expectations. The dollar advanced while gold and silver retreated. The Japanese yen found support after Japanese officials emphasized a “responsible” fiscal approach and signaled total government bond issuance this fiscal year would remain below last year’s levels. Broader risk sentiment stayed fragile, with US equities and bitcoin hovering near session lows. Looking ahead, traders will parse Canada’s retail sales and the US flash PMIs—seen as the day’s key market catalyst—while the final University of Michigan sentiment is unlikely to sway positioning. Markets currently assign roughly a 30% probability to a Fed rate cut in December, leaving room for reassessment if incoming data markedly surprise before the Fed blackout begins next week.
Key Points: – Eurozone services PMIs beat forecasts; Germany manufacturing PMI undershoots, highlighting uneven recovery – UK data disappoints: retail sales -1.1% m/m and services PMI at 50.5, reinforcing BoE December cut expectations – ECB officials maintain a neutral tone, signaling policy will adjust as needed to keep inflation on target – Yen firmer as Japanese authorities flag restrained bond issuance and responsible fiscal policy – US dollar strengthens; gold and silver decline as risk sentiment softens and bitcoin trades near the lows – Focus turns to US flash PMIs; markets price about a 30% chance of a December Fed rate cut
