Fed-cut bets ignite risk rally: Bitcoin clears $90K as dollar softens; housing discounts widen, mortgage rates slide
Risk-on sentiment returned to global markets as traders priced in a higher chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing Bitcoin above $90,000 and nudging the U.S. dollar lower. The shift comes alongside deepening U.S. housing discounts, softer holiday hiring plans, and a drop in mortgage rates—conditions that could recalibrate FX flows and volatility in the weeks ahead.
Markets snapshot: risk appetite lifts crypto, weighs on the dollar
Bitcoin spiked past $90,000 and tested resistance around $91,500, with $241 million of short positions liquidated as risk appetite revived. The move was driven more by macro than sector-specific headlines: expectations for a Fed policy pivot rose, with rate-cut odds climbing to 85%, supporting risk assets and generally pressuring the greenback.
In crypto-specific positioning, some high-profile targets were recalibrated: Tom Lee lowered his near-term expectation from $250,000 to above $100,000, while Cathie Wood reiterated a longer-term view of $1.5 million by 2030. Traders flagged $80,000 as near-term support, with momentum likely to hinge on front-end U.S. yields and broader dollar direction.
Housing discounts deepen as mortgage rates fall
Price cuts are accelerating in the U.S. housing market, with sellers offering record average discounts near 9%—about $25,000 per listing—to lure cautious buyers. At the same time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 6.23%, its lowest level since October 2024. Lower rates are boosting inquiries and approvals at the margin, but affordability and confidence remain the swing factors that will determine whether demand firms into 2026.
Holiday hiring plans also underscore a softer consumer backdrop: retailers are guiding 265,000–365,000 seasonal additions versus 442,000 last year, reflecting uncertainty around discretionary spending. For macro traders, the mix of cooler labor demand, wider housing discounts, and lower mortgage rates adds to the case for easier policy—supportive for duration, mixed for the dollar, and positive for higher-beta assets like equities and crypto.
Emerging markets: Philippines targets $60B tokenized assets by 2030
The Philippines is aiming for a $60 billion tokenized asset market by 2030, positioning digital issuance as a tool for financial inclusion and capital formation. If realized, such a framework could lower transaction costs, broaden investor access, and catalyze cross-border flows—potentially improving market depth and liquidity in local FX and fixed income.
Commodities and the EV supply chain: recycling steps up
On the materials side, supply-chain security remains in focus. Redwood Materials now handles an estimated 90% of North America’s lithium-ion battery recycling and is targeting a tenfold scale-up, while MP Materials has partnered with Apple to expand use of recycled rare earths. Greater circularity in key inputs like lithium and rare earths can dampen price volatility over time, ease import dependence, and reshape terms of trade—factors that ultimately spill over into FX and equity risk premia linked to EV production.
Key levels and sentiment
– Bitcoin: resistance ~$91,500; support ~$80,000; vol sensitive to front-end U.S. yields and USD trend.
– FX: softer dollar bias amid higher cut odds; watch DXY reaction to growth and labor data.
– Rates: declining mortgage costs signal easier financial conditions, but labor and spending data will steer the depth of cuts priced.
– Equities/crypto: risk-on posture intact while real yields drift lower and liquidity conditions remain supportive.
Key Points
- Bitcoin jumped above $90,000, testing ~$91,500, as Fed rate-cut odds rose to about 85%.
- Roughly $241 million in short positions were liquidated, amplifying crypto’s upside.
- Tom Lee trimmed his BTC expectation to >$100k near term; Cathie Wood keeps a $1.5 million 2030 view.
- U.S. home sellers are offering record discounts near 9% (~$25,000), boosting buyer leverage.
- 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.23%, the lowest since October 2024, aiding affordability marginally.
- Holiday hiring plans (265k–365k) trail last year’s 442k, signaling cautious consumer demand.
- The Philippines targets a $60 billion tokenized asset market by 2030 to expand access and liquidity.
- Redwood Materials and MP Materials push battery and rare-earth recycling, strengthening EV supply chains.
What traders are watching next
– U.S. labor and inflation prints for confirmation of an easing path; a downside surprise would likely keep the dollar under pressure.
– Crypto funding rates and on-chain flows to gauge whether the BTC rally extends or consolidates near resistance.
– Housing data and mortgage application trends for signs of a demand rebound as prices adjust.
– EM policy and tokenization frameworks in Asia that could open new routes for capital markets participation.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin rally above $90,000?
Bitcoin climbed on a broader macro risk-on move as traders priced in higher odds of Fed rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and boosting high-beta assets. A wave of short liquidations (~$241 million) added momentum.
What does rising cut probability mean for the dollar and yields?
Higher odds of rate cuts typically push U.S. yields lower and weigh on the dollar, supporting equities, crypto, and carry trades. The magnitude depends on incoming growth and inflation data.
Are widening housing discounts bullish or bearish for markets?
They signal cooling demand and improving affordability. Near term, they can reinforce expectations for easier policy—supportive for rates and risk assets—but they also reflect softer consumer confidence, which can cap upside if labor markets deteriorate.
How could the Philippines’ tokenization push affect investors?
A $60 billion tokenized asset market could broaden access to real-world assets, improve liquidity, and lower issuance costs. For global investors, it may open new yield opportunities and deepen EM market infrastructure.
What do battery and rare-earth recycling mean for commodities?
Scaling recycled lithium-ion and rare earths can reduce supply shocks and price volatility, improve trade balances for importers, and stabilize input costs for EV manufacturers—factors that can influence commodity-linked equities and FX over time.
What are the key Bitcoin levels now?
Spot is testing resistance near $91,500, with technical support around $80,000. Direction will likely track front-end U.S. yields and the dollar’s path. Traders are watching for follow-through buying versus consolidation below resistance.
This article was produced by BPayNews.
